Bill James' thoughts on the Dodgers…
Just got this press release that you can all debate. Personally, I’d like to think we’re higher than the 13th best young talent in the Majors, but I can’t say that I know every other organization or have studied them to be able to compare. I’m certain that Chad Billingsley got short-changed in this discussion and DeWitt is not even mentioned in the list of talented yong Dodgers, but in any event, enjoy debating…
Bill James names Matt Kemp and James Loney among top 25 young talent in baseball
Claims Dodgers #13 among all major league teams in young talent
In the second year of his newly developed “Young Talent Inventory,” groundbreaking baseball analyst Bill James names Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp 7th and first baseman James Loney 20th on his list of the top 25 major league ballplayers under 30 years old. In The Bill James Handbook 2009, to be published on November 1, 2008, James also judges the Dodgers to have the thirteenth-best overall young talent in Major League Baseball, up seven places from last year.
“2008 really was not a great year for young talent, except pitchers,” James says in his new book. “Some young position players took a step forward (Dustin Pedroia, Matt Kemp, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton, Jose Lopez, Geovany Soto, Nate McLouth); others took a step backward (Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer). But the only really huge talent to emerge in 2008 was Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay Rays.”
“In pitching, on the other hand, it was a good year,” argues James. “Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, John Danks and others emerged as major young talents–others including Jair Jurrjens, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey and Edinson Volquez.” James points out that evaluating the best young talent is a transitory task: “Virtually everyone who is on this list now will drop off within two years. In baseball, you get over being ‘young’ really quickly.” What is remarkable about this year’s list, he says, is that there is little turnover this year compared to last, which means that relatively little new talent emerged.
To achieve his inventory, James first eliminates from the list all players who were 30 years old or older in 2008. He employs two widely used statistics–“Runs Created” for position players and “Runs Allowed” for pitchers–as the basis for comparison. He makes several adjustments, including for injuries suffered during the year and the differences in predictability between pitchers and position players, and then takes into account the number of years the player should be at his peak performance.
James lists the Dodgers as the #13 team in all of baseball for young talent, just below the L.A. Angels of Anaheim and the Oakland A’s: “Nobody on the A’s is all that good, at least not yet, but they lead the world in guys who should get better. The Dodgers are the exact opposite of the A’s; they have very impressive young talent in Kemp, Ethier, Billingsley, Loney and Kershaw, Broxton and Martin, but their issue is depth.”
Only four teams–the Brewers (Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun), the Mets (David Wright and Jose Reyes), the Red Sox (Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester), and the Dodgers (Matt Kemp and James Loney)–placed two players in James’ list of top 25 young players.
Making James’ list of the top 25 young players in order were:
1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hern! andez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24
James also listed teams in order of overall young talent currently on the big league squad:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Florida Marlins
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Milwaukee Brewers
7. Cleveland Indians
8. Colorado Rockies
9. Atlanta Braves
10. Boston Red Sox
11. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
12. Oakland A’s
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Cincinnati Reds
16. New York Mets
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Seattle Mariners
19. Texas Rangers
20. Philadelphia Phillies
21. San Diego Padres
22. San Francisco Giants
23. Washington Nationals
24. Baltimore Orioles
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Chicago Cubs
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Toronto Blue Jays
29. New York Yankees
30. Houston Astros
As James has noted often, “Competitive teams don’t have as much room to let young players thrash around, and consequently most of the top teams don’t show as having a lot of young talent. They may have the young talent; it just isn’t in the lineup yet.”
For further information on The Bill James Handbook 2009
go to www.actasports.com or call Gregory Pierce at 800-397-2282.