Results tagged ‘ Bill James ’

Bill James calls Dodgers #11 in Young Talent Inventory

It seems these days that everyone ranks top talent, but Bill James is obviously someone who has been doing it for quite some time. He put Matt Kemp #11 on his list of the top 20 young big leaguers and ranked the Dodgers #11 overall.

See below for the full release

Bill James names Matt Kemp
among top 20 young talent in baseball

Calls Dodgers #11 in Young Talent Inventory

In the third year of his newly developed “Young Talent Inventory,” groundbreaking baseball analyst Bill James names Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp #11 on his list of the top 20 young major league ballplayers. In the just-published Bill James Gold Mine 2010, James also judges the Dodgers to have the eleventh-best overall young talent in Major League Baseball, up two places from last year and just below the Marlins but above the Phillies. The Tampa Bay Rays were ranked #1.

James rates all of the young talent on each of the thirty major league teams. The Dodgers are rated #11 overall: “Despite the presence on their roster of Kemp, Ethier, Martin and Loney, the Dodgers are actually fairly near the bottom of the list in young position players. They rank first in young pitching, however,” he says. “Their top six: Kemp, Billingsley, Ethier, Broxton, Loney and Kershaw. (If the system worked perfectly, Kershaw would rank ahead of Loney.)”

James lists the 20 “most valuable properties” among young players in the majors (with ages in parentheses):

Felix Hernandez, Seattle (23)
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee (25)
Hanley Ramirez, Florida (25)
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (25)
Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (22)
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco (25)
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (23)
Justin Upton, Arizona (21)
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit (26)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (25)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers (24)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (25)
Zack Greinke, Kansas City (25)
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington (24)
David Wright, New York Mets (26)
Joe Mauer, Minnesota (26)
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (24)
Adam Lind, Toronto (25)
Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta (23)
Mark Reynolds, Arizona (25)

As James has noted often, “Competitive teams don’t have as much room to let young players thrash around, and consequently most of the top teams don’t show as having a lot of young talent. They may have the young talent; it just isn’t in the lineup yet.” That having been said, here are his rankings of the Young Talent Inventory of all 30 teams (with their rankings last year in parentheses):

Tampa Bay Rays (3)
Colorado Rockies (8)
Minnesota Twins (1)
Arizona Diamondbacks (2)
Boston Red Sox (10)
San Francisco Giants (22)
New York Yankees (29)
Texas Rangers (19)
Chicago White Sox (25)
Florida Marlins (4)
Los Angeles Dodgers (13)
Philadelphia Phillies (20)
Atlanta Braves (9)
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (11)
Kansas City Royals (5)
New York Mets (16)
Chicago Cubs (26)
Seattle Mariners (18)
Milwaukee Brewers (6)
Baltimore Orioles (24)
Oakland A’s (12)
Toronto Blue Jays (28)
Washington Nationals (23)
St. Louis Cardinals (14)
Pittsburgh Pirates (17)
Cleveland Indians (7)
Cincinnati Reds (15)
Detroit Tigers (27)
San Diego Padres (21)
Houston Astros (30)

For more information information on The Bill James Gold Mine 2010,
go to or call Andrew Yankech at 800-397-2282.


For all you Bill James enthusiasts…

Got this news release in my inbox today…will be interesting to look back at the end of 2010 and see how close the projects are…sorry that the formatting is probably off

Nov. 3, 2009

Bill James projects key Los Angeles Dodgers for 2010
Manny Ramirez slated to rebound

In the recently-released Bill James Handbook 2010, baseball guru Bill James projects the 2010 seasons for players on the Los Angeles Dodgers–and predicts a big comeback year for outfielder Manny Ramirez.

“In any season, the vast majority of players play in a manner that seems a natural extension of what they had done before,” James says in his new book. “When that happens, our projection should be reasonably accurate.”

With this in mind, here are five key Dodgers hitters for 2010, according to the new Bill James Handbook 2010:

Key Dodgers Hitters (by OPS) 
Player  At-bats  R  HR  RBI  SB  Avg. OPS 
Manny Ramirez 514  88 30  101 1  .296 .943
Matt Kemp 573 99 23  91  32 .311 .873 
Andre Ethier 560 85 24  89 5 .288 .868 
Russell Martin 533 80 12  71 13 .272 .768 
Casey Blake 517 72 18  68  3 .257 .762

Projecting stats for pitchers is very different from projecting offensive stats for hitters. “We used to believe that pitching performance was much, much less predictable than batter performance,” James says. “This is probably still true…due to injuries and other factors. Sometimes a pitcher gets hurt, and when that happens our projections for him are knocked into a cocked hat.”

Here are three key Dodgers pitchers for 2010, according to the new Bill James Handbook 2010:

Key Dodgers Pitchers (by ERA)
Player  IP  W L K  SV  ERA 
Jonathan Broxton 80 6  3 104 40  2.36 
Clayton Kershaw 180 13 7 188 0  3.25
Chad Billingsley 185 12 8 177 0  3.65

The complete projections for the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers can be found in the Bill James Handbook 2010.

For further information on the Bill James Handbook 2010
go to

Bill James' thoughts on the Dodgers…

Just got this press release that you can all debate. Personally, I’d like to think we’re higher than the 13th best young talent in the Majors, but I can’t say that I know every other organization or have studied them to be able to compare. I’m certain that Chad Billingsley got short-changed in this discussion and DeWitt is not even mentioned in the list of talented yong Dodgers, but in any event, enjoy debating…

Bill James names Matt Kemp and James Loney among top 25 young talent in baseball

Claims Dodgers #13 among all major league teams in young talent

In the second year of his newly developed “Young Talent Inventory,” groundbreaking baseball analyst Bill James names Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp 7th and first baseman James Loney 20th on his list of the top 25 major league ballplayers under 30 years old. In The Bill James Handbook 2009, to be published on November 1, 2008, James also judges the Dodgers to have the thirteenth-best overall young talent in Major League Baseball, up seven places from last year.

“2008 really was not a great year for young talent, except pitchers,” James says in his new book. “Some young position players took a step forward (Dustin Pedroia, Matt Kemp, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton, Jose Lopez, Geovany Soto, Nate McLouth); others took a step backward (Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer). But the only really huge talent to emerge in 2008 was Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay Rays.”

“In pitching, on the other hand, it was a good year,” argues James. “Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, John Danks and others emerged as major young talents–others including Jair Jurrjens, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey and Edinson Volquez.” James points out that evaluating the best young talent is a transitory task: “Virtually everyone who is on this list now will drop off within two years. In baseball, you get over being ‘young’ really quickly.” What is remarkable about this year’s list, he says, is that there is little turnover this year compared to last, which means that relatively little new talent emerged.

To achieve his inventory, James first eliminates from the list all players who were 30 years old or older in 2008. He employs two widely used statistics–“Runs Created” for position players and “Runs Allowed” for pitchers–as the basis for comparison. He makes several adjustments, including for injuries suffered during the year and the differences in predictability between pitchers and position players, and then takes into account the number of years the player should be at his peak performance.

James lists the Dodgers as the #13 team in all of baseball for young talent, just below the L.A. Angels of Anaheim and the Oakland A’s: “Nobody on the A’s is all that good, at least not yet, but they lead the world in guys who should get better. The Dodgers are the exact opposite of the A’s; they have very impressive young talent in Kemp, Ethier, Billingsley, Loney and Kershaw, Broxton and Martin, but their issue is depth.”

Only four teams–the Brewers (Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun), the Mets (David Wright and Jose Reyes), the Red Sox (Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester), and the Dodgers (Matt Kemp and James Loney)–placed two players in James’ list of top 25 young players.

Making James’ list of the top 25 young players in order were:

 1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
 2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
 3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
 4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
 5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
 6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
 7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
 8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
 9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hern! andez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24

James also listed teams in order of overall young talent currently on the big league squad:

 1. Minnesota Twins
 2. Arizona Diamondbacks
 3. Tampa Bay Rays
 4. Florida Marlins
 5. Kansas City Royals
 6. Milwaukee Brewers
 7. Cleveland Indians
 8. Colorado Rockies
 9. Atlanta Braves
10. Boston Red Sox
11. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
12. Oakland A’s
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Cincinnati Reds
16. New York Mets
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Seattle Mariners
19. Texas Rangers
20. Philadelphia Phillies
21. San Diego Padres
22. San Francisco Giants
23. Washington Nationals
24. Baltimore Orioles
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Chicago Cubs
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Toronto Blue Jays
29. New York Yankees
30. Houston Astros

As James has noted often, “Competitive teams don’t have as much room to let young players thrash around, and consequently most of the top teams don’t show as having a lot of young talent. They may have the young talent; it just isn’t in the lineup yet.”

For further information on The Bill James Handbook 2009
go to or call Gregory Pierce at 800-397-2282.