Best and worst Dodger trades

Here’s a news release that came into inbox today…an interesting read that doesn’t even touch on the Pedro Martinez/Delino Deshields deal, which most of the Dodger legions believe is the worst one in our team’s history.

 

If nothing else, it’s a new thread to discuss your thoughts on the good trades and bad ones over the years…

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Dec. 10, 2009

Los Angeles Dodgers rank twenty-sixth in lopsided trades in the twentieth century
Dodgers lost a net -297 games due to lopsided trading 

 

In Traded: Inside the Most Lopsided Trades in Baseball History, statistical consultant Doug Decatur uses Win Shares, a statistic developed by baseball guru Bill James to determine how many wins a player contributes to his team, to objectively rank the 306 most lopsided trades of the twentieth century. (Lopsided trades are those in which the trade produced a net value of 111 future Win Shares, or 37 wins, by the players involved after the trade was made.)

 

Here are the top five positive lopsided trades for the Los Angeles Dodgers:

 

Season   Principal Acquired Principal    Traded Net Future    Wins

1939  Pee Wee Reese  Red Evans  105 
1974 Pedro Guerrero  Bruce Ellingsen  82 
1918  Burleigh Grimes  Casey Stengel  65 
1938  Dolph Camilli  Eddie Morgan  51 
1900  Lave Cross  $3,000  43 

 

The Dodgers won their last five World Championships not because of trades and not because of free agency. Their formula has been simple: Put a good, home-grown team on the field as a result of a very good farm system, and then wait for a dominant pitcher to put them over the top, such as Don Drysdale in 1959, Sandy Koufax in 1963 and 1965, Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, and Orel Hershiser in 1988.

 

Here are the five worst lopsided trades for the Los Angeles Dodgers:

Season    Principal Acquired Principal    Traded Net Future    Loses

1965  Claude Osteen  Frank Howard  103 
1936  Tom Winsett  Dutch Leonard  82 
1983  Rafael Landestoy  John Franco  61 
1977  Rick Monday  Bill Buckner  60 
1940  Joe Gallagher  Roy Cullenbine  57 

 

More than just a ranking of trades, Traded provides a team-by-team overview of the best trades in each team’s history and the human side of the story behind those trades, as well as a listing of the worst trades for each team. Author Doug Decatur also explores the GM who made the best trade for each of the thirty MLB teams.

 

More importantly, however, in Traded Decatur identifies thirteen red flags to look out for when evaluating future trades that could indicate a lopsided deal is about to take place. These include secondary average for hitters, strikeout-to-walk ratio for pitchers, and the under-valuation of minor league statistics that often occurs in the majors.

68 Comments

Wow, thanks Josh. I’m sure there will be plenty of discussion on this topic.

Too much fuzzy math for me.

Thanks for the new thread Josh. Well, one comes to mind right away……………..Ethier/Bradley trade :)

Still fuzzy math to me but judging trades by hindsight just makes for good conversation. Yes, some deals just look bad but I still feel one has to know what led to the trade and what each team hoped to accomplish. Trades are not made in a vaccum and the Delino/Pedro deal is an excellant example. We all know the story of why that deal was made. Did the Dodgers expect Pedro to have the career he had? Of course not. Did they misjudge Pedro’s ability? It is easy to answer that question now. I think it is easier to look at trading Piazza since he was a known commodity and that trade had nothing to do with making the ball club better. That trade was bad at the time for a number of reasons. I admit some trades, especially ones at the trading deadline may be head scratchers.

I’m fuzzy too, lbirken. :)

Best trade ever:
Frank and Jamie traded for Tiger Woods. This way Tiger can spend oodles of money on players with his new-found free time, and frolic through Hollywood when the mood strikes him.

Boy Josh, what a loaded question. Well, I don’t want to be negative, so how about the best trade I’ve ever seen: shipping off Melting Bradley for our Everyday ‘Dre!!! :)

Hey Gang!!! CP, good thoughts will always prevail and you are so on it. No use to focus on the negative. That trade will certainly go down as one of the best ever, for our organization and baseball as a whole!!! Most trades end up being a wash for both teams. Not too often, one team really screws the other. Alot of times, it is a crap shoot!!! We can’t focus on water under the bridge, we have to move forward. Hopefully in a proactive way, not a reative way!!!

reactive

The Dodgers won their last five World Championships not because of trades and not because of free agency. Their formula has been simple: Put a good, home-grown team on the field as a result of a very good farm system, and then wait for a dominant pitcher to put them over the top, such as Don Drysdale in 1959, Sandy Koufax in 1963 and 1965, Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, and Orel Hershiser in 1988.

Exactly!!!! Gotta hope either Kersh or Billz or both break thru!!!!

Outstanding Josh!!!

CP – loaded question is right, and I thought the same thing you did………………the one of the few positive ones, Bradley for Andre.

Hey Jhall!!!! How ya doing!!!

Hi’Ya Nells!! Good, how about you Dodger Girl?

I am doing good as well…………..baking cookies like I do every year during this time. I think if I ever quit teaching or the state can’t afford me anymore, I would love to open a bakery.

:)))

Good for you Nells!!! I hope you and your family have a wonderful Holiday and Christmas!!! I will be traveling thru this holiday season, so, if I don’t get a chance to get back here: I wish all my ITD family and friends a very warm and merry Christmas!!!!!

Love that smile!!! Other than the ITD Holiday CD (featuring Enchantedsunset) about to hit the shelves, not much is going on in Dodgertown.

And a Very Merry Christmas to you too, jhall my friend!

Where are you traveling to Jhall? Wherever it is I wish you safe travels, especially in your neck of the woods with the weather. I, too, hope you have a wonderful Christmas.

DAAAAAAAAAAAD!!! Merry Christmas to you my friend!!! You’ve made my night!! I hope to see alot of you updating our farm system and providing your usual great insights into the/our Dodgers plight!!!

Wow!!! Look who showed up. I guess this means if you are on ITD, your annual LOTR Marathon has now reached its conclusion.

Going to Philley/New Jersey Nells!!! Ironic, eh? My girlfriends family is from there. Gonna spend time with her 92 year old grandmother and family. Great people!!! That’s how/why I know Phan is an aberration, not the typical Philley fan!!!!

Hey Nells, there just big Buckeye fans deep down, they just don’t know it yet!!! LOL!!!!!

Well, I am glad you found one of the many good ones jhall. I can say the same for my hubby being a gnat fan. Not all gnat fans are created equal.

LOL Nells!! Good for you!!!

Yes Junie, the 5th Annual Lord of the Rings Marathon is history. It’s still #1 on my personal list for Best Movie Ever.

Jhall, as soon as I’m able to spend some time researching our minor system, you’ll be the first to know.

As for the “trades” topic at the top of this thread, I agree with Josh. Although he didn’t quite say as much, any discussion on the worst trades in Dodger history has to start with the Martinez deal. I think Mr Decatur’s using stats are missing the mark. I certainly am not familiar with the “Win stats” that are at the core of his study, but they would appear to be flawed. You can, for instance, determine how many games Pedro Guerrero might have won with a GW RBI, but how can you determine how many games the Dodger 3rd baseman who would have REPLACED Guerrero would have won?

Well, definitely be safe traveling than. The news around here has been all about the weather out east. We can complain all we want about our winters, but it’s nothing compared to the east coast.

Yea – the stats were making us a little fuzzy like lbirken said earlier.

Dad, I’m sure you will give us great insight into the minor leagues and what we have to look forward to. I agree, I’m not sure about his stats, but, I don’t really care or want to dwell in the past. I don’t really have the time. We can beat it to death and it will make no difference. Maybe some venting. We can’t change it, so why spend alot of time worrying about it. I want to know what the Dodgers are doing to develope Kersh and Billz!!! That is our future!!!

Have a very safe and Merry Christmas Gang!!! Make it Special!!!

Ecelsior True Believers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I spent way too much time on NASCAR stats at the end of the racing season (BTW, did you hear that Jimmie Johnson was voted AP Male Athlete of the Year?) Now, with only a couple of weeks left in the NFL regular season, I figure on having some free time soon for Fun with Baseball Stats.

The same to you jhall!!!! Good Night and God Bless!!!!

Yes, I did hear that news about Jimmie…….first thing this morning – lol!!! Many are claiming he is not considered an athlete you know :)

They have this new show on mlbtv called “By the Numbers”. It’s for the stat crazies. It is soooo much fun to watch!!!

Good morning nelly. Merry christmas to you and yours. Haven’t been on for awhle. Have been busy trying to keep the Cowboys in the hunt.
Good luck with he cookie baking. My wife and I baked 17 different kinds this year. Gave tons of them away.
We need a big signing or agood trade to get a good pitcher to replace wolf.
Go Dodgers
Merry Christmas all.

Merry Christmas ALL!
JOSH…great post! But I agree with just about all of ITD…. Ethier/Bradley trade has been one of the best trade in the Dodger’s organization.
*
Tiger Woods trade….LOL….funny KAHLI!

Hey Boblee!!! Merry Christmas to you and your family as well. Yep, your boys are doing well down the home stretch for sure. My Skins are just sad, sad, sad this year, but like the Dodgers, I will stay a fan through the good and the bad. As for the cookies, I am making about that many different kinds, give or take one or two kinds, depending on what I can get done between now and Thursday. I, too, give about 90% of them away. Thanks for checking in with us, and as for football, may the best teams win. Other than wanting the Chargers to do well in the playoffs this year, I am up in the air as to who I would want in the playoffs as well. Take care and Merry Christmas!!!!

Hi Rose!!!! Merry Christmas to you as well :)

I for one would like to concentrate on trades that I’d like to see happen:
First off, Frank and Jamie for Arte Moreno!
Second, Ned for any other GM, maybe even any assistant GM, but certainly for Logan White or Ng, and that doesn’t even require a trade.
Third, Torre for Scoscia, or anybody else with a certifiable blood pressure going through their veins.

Among players: I’d trade Blake for Hudson. I think that both Blake and Manny will significantly underperform on their career statistics. DeWitt could play third as well or better than he will play second, and Carroll can assist him at either position. Hudson would give us the solid defense up the middle, like he contributed last year, and I suggest that his offensive performance of last year is likely to be better than either DeWitt or Carroll will bring.

I for one would like to concentrate on trades that I’d like to see happen:
First off, Frank and Jamie for Arte Moreno!
Second, Ned for any other GM, maybe even any assistant GM, but certainly for Logan White or Ng, and that doesn’t even require a trade.
Third, Torre for Scoscia, or anybody else with a certifiable blood pressure going through their veins.

Among players: I’d trade Blake for Hudson. I think that both Blake and Manny will significantly underperform on their career statistics. DeWitt could play third as well or better than he will play second, and Carroll can assist him at either position. Hudson would give us the solid defense up the middle, like he contributed last year, and I suggest that his offensive performance of last year is likely to be better than either DeWitt or Carroll will bring.

Oh yes, and thank you to mlb.com for emphasizing my message by double-posting it. I’d love to trade you for any discard espn system.

Who came up with this are you Whacked

let me add a few

You don’t trade a Hall of Famer

Mike Piazza

Trading Pedro Martinez for Delino Deshied’s Why should have never been done especially when at worst at the time he would have been a dominant closer and we have seen the best. I knew it was a bad trade the moment it happened we had a lead off hitter and honestly anybody can play second base.

Worst trade – O’Malley for Fox.
.
2nd worst trade – Fox for the McCourts.

Any questions?

Good morning ITD boys and girls!
Okay, before you leave (I thought I already missed you): Jhall – have fun and stay safe on your travels! I don’t know if everything has thawed out yet, but the other day I saw a NASA picture from space with snow everywhere!!! Merry Christmas!!! :)

Nelly – We did say we think alike, don’t we??? :)

I’ve gotta go for now, but I’ll be back later. Don’t know exactly when, but I’ll be back later!!!

No, no questions.
Somewhere it was written, “Certain truths are self-evident…”

You’re on it Beav!!! Hey Bear, someone forgot to tell Frank and Jamie that the fans have “certain unalienable rights with regard to parking, concessions, ticket prices, and the pursuit of Dodger fan happiness”!!!

Enchanted ~ why are cricket’s ears located on their front legs, right below the knee?

Our “Truths” Bear are also “self-centered” and “self-promoting.”

Hey Wally!! What’s shakin’ in Ohio?

I should be able to get a $2.50 hot dog and $3.50 beer dammit’!!!! And park for 5-7 bucks!!!!

Josh’s worst nightmare – the Unholy Trinity of Bear, Jhall and E. – LMAO!!

Not much Beav!!! Getting ready to drive to New Jersey!!! How about you my brother?

Hi’Ya Trumom!!! I don’t know, but am very curious for the answer!!! LOL!!!

Hey Tru – so Jeff can tell Jamie that Frank’s coming! (interesting visual when you give it a second.)

LMAO!!!!!

LOL Beav!! The ghosts of Dodgers past, present, and future!!! We need to pay Frank a Christmas eve midnight visit!!!

I’d also like to get Tiger Woods wife to go up side Ned and Jamie’s heads with a 9 iron!!! LOL!!!!

Hi’Ya CP!! Thanks!!! Good to see you and I hope you and yours also have a safe and merry Christmas!!!!!

Jersey huh? Well have a safe trip there and back. See if you can line-up a couple pairs of cement shoes for our owners.

LOL Beav!!! Thanks!!!

I also want to wish you a safe trip, Jhall. Travel this time of the year can be brutal.

Thanks Trumom!! My warmest Christmas wishes go out to you and yours!!!

Me, too, Jhall :)

:)))

Enjoy every moment my friends!!! Money is replaceable, time and the moment are not. The whole Tiger, Frank and Jamie fiasco’s just underline it!! Hug your kids and wife/significant one!!! Embrace the moment!!! You can make it special just by giving of yourself!!!! I wish I had realized this plain and simple truth when I was 20!!!!!

A little Beatles wisdom, “And in the end, the love you take, is equal to the love, you make.” Abbey Road.

Merry Christmas to all.
I have not been very active on this board lately but have kept up with whatever news there has been.
It has been pretty clear the past two years that making it to the league playoffs is not the same as winning the World Series. Dominant pitching is what usually wins the Series. Our owner is walking a financial tightrope trying to be as profitable as he can be without alienating the fans any more than necessary. He figures that as long as we get in the playoffs, the fans will continue to show up. The portable concessions are like the Rapid Deployment Force put in place by President Carter. Money saved on a big time player can be put into systems that can be moved and expanded depending on the situation, minimizing overhead costs and maximizing concession profits and hopefully creating a better fan experience.
Winning the World Series would not create substantially more profits than just making it to the playoffs each year.
I just wish is was not about money. I am an old school fan from the days of 32 and 53 and would like to see the Dodgers dominate the way they did in those magical years in the 60’s. Of course, with the new, smaller dimensions, Koufax and Drysdale probably would be hard pressed to repeat the numbers they put up when the park favored pitching a lot more than it does now. Maybe instead of paying another hack pitcher a million dollars, they should just hire ten more coaches to help pitching prospects advance more quickly.

Merry Christmas to all.
I have not been very active on this board lately but have kept up with whatever news there has been.
It has been pretty clear the past two years that making it to the league playoffs is not the same as winning the World Series. Dominant pitching is what usually wins the Series. Our owner is walking a financial tightrope trying to be as profitable as he can be without alienating the fans any more than necessary. He figures that as long as we get in the playoffs, the fans will continue to show up. The portable concessions are like the Rapid Deployment Force put in place by President Carter. Money saved on a big time player can be put into systems that can be moved and expanded depending on the situation, minimizing overhead costs and maximizing concession profits and hopefully creating a better fan experience.
Winning the World Series would not create substantially more profits than just making it to the playoffs each year.
I just wish is was not about money. I am an old school fan from the days of 32 and 53 and would like to see the Dodgers dominate the way they did in those magical years in the 60’s. Of course, with the new, smaller dimensions, Koufax and Drysdale probably would be hard pressed to repeat the numbers they put up when the park favored pitching a lot more than it does now. Maybe instead of paying another hack pitcher a million dollars, they should just hire ten more coaches to help pitching prospects advance more quickly.

who cares go yankees!!!

Finally, a site post I enjoyed reading! Keep up the great work!

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