That’s the right move. Furcal is much better at getting on base , and Pierre can bunt him over. Also that way you’re not putting pressure on Furcal to try and hit homeruns.
There’s nothing wrong with either choice. I would rather see Rafy hitting first and Pierre second, but if Grady chose to go Pierre first and Rafy third, both are fine.
i agree furcal is good right there, juan pierre will just be a younger faster kenny lofton that puts the ball in play all over, he should see some fastballs to slap around for sure.
as for the song it has nothing to do with japanese culture or baseball but he was nothing short of the song title last year. so i choose lights out by UFO. please tell me someone on this blog has heard of them.
Ill go ahead and say it- Pierre should be hitting 8th. Thats really where he belongs given his numbers (low OBP, low SLG) I dont care who’s feelings are hurt etc…. thats what’s best for the team, thats where he belongs.
Although I had previously thought that Pierre would be a better #1 since Furcal has more versatility (and gap power), I think that batting Pierre #2 will let Little have a lot of fun. With Pierre’s skills as a slap hitter/bunter, teams will constantly be afraid of the hit and run, the bunt for a hit, the fake bunt, the sac bunt turned base hit…I think these two will wreak havoc on a defense in this order. Plus, having Furcal on base in front of Pierre will probably make Pierre a more dangerous hitter than when he’s leading off. What do you guys think?
I think it’s a respect thing !! Furcal deserves to keep his spot and Pierre needs to earn the spot. Furcal does have a history of pouting when he doesn’t get respect. To move him would send the wrong message that the Dodgers respect Pierre more then they do him. Either way, if we’re winning I think both players will do what’s best for the team.
Like many of you guys, I can live with either Furcal or Pierre leading off, but I’d much rather have Furcal in that spot – for several reasons:
Last season, with Lofton batting second, Kenny rarely hit into a DP with Furcal on first base (usually because Furcal stole second). I see the same thing happening with Pierre in the number two spot. With Furcal on second base and with Pierre’s history of multiple 200+ (slap) hit seasons, Furcal stands to score even more runs than he did last season when Lofton hit behind him.
Now here’s a stat that I had to check twice to make sure that I had it right: Last season, Furcal hit 15 total home runs. SIX of those were first inning lead off home runs. That’s 40% of his total home runs for the season! (Don’t forget that Furcal played hurt for the first two months of the season). Pierre had a total of three home runs last season, of which only one was a first inning lead off home run. Sure it’s nice to have guys on base when one of your better power hitters like Furcal (did I just say that out loud) comes up, but NOTHING fires up a team (and the home crowd) like a first inning lead off home run, and Raffy ROCKS at that.
Pierre is also a much better bunter than Furcal (or Lofton), so here is another plus in having Pierre bat in the number two spot behind Furcal.
All of that being said, I kind of think that Grady should have held off a bit in naming his opening day starter and his lead off hitter until the Dodgers had a few Spring Training games under their belts – but that is just my opinion.
alright thats two comments now regarding pierre 8th. the bottom line is guys we are going with the same approach as last year, same lineup same concept pretty much. we didnt get a power hitter and dont foresee a game changing one breaking out on our roster as is. before you criticize and think that your on to something people are afraid to say you should think a little more because we havent even seen a game played. for now go with last years model, if its not working its not working, but it worked well enough for us last year.
I agree graffitigenius. If we go in to this season with essentially the same line-up, that is perfectly fine. They had no proplem scoring runs and a full season of Betemit (hopefully) can add 20-25 HR’s in my opinion.. And with a superior Pitching staff, they have what it takes to be a major contender… I’M HUNGRY FOR A WORLD SERIES! GO BLUE!!
We need to work with what we have and if it looks a lot like last year so be it !! After all we did make the playoff’s and had we been healthy more often then not we would have done much better. This is a team with spirit and determination !! I believe in what we have today and if we need something tomorrow Ned has proven to us he is willing to go after it the best he can with what he has to offer !!
Lofton is a better hitter than Pierre. Just because they’re both fast, doesn’t mean they’re the same player. The only non-pitcher likely to make the team this year who is a worse hitter than Pierre is Ramon Martinez. The right answer is to bench Pierre; but batting him eighth would be the second best choice.
Lofton is better then Pierre. Pierre OBP is too low for him to bat leadoff or even second. Plus he doesnt walk alot. We would have been better off signing lofton to a one year deal. Id have the lineup of…
“Headstrong” by Trapt. “Back off, I’ll take you on. Headstrong, I’ll take on anyone. I know that you are wrong, this is not where you belong.” If I remember correctly, that’s the chorus(I edited one part of it a bit). Good rock riff too.
All right, I’m a huge dodger fan and I have to say that getting Pierre was a great move for our team. He is a perfect 2 hitter as he is one of the best bunters/contact hitters in baseball. It is essentially a 2 hitters job to move over the lead-off man for the bigger sticks. All this nonsense I’m reading about Pierre batting 8th or Pierre being the worst hitter in our line-up is so so far from the truth. He might only be a slap hitter but he has collected over 200 hits in 4 of his 6 full seasons, by the way bokonon “Lofton is a better hitter than Pierre” Kenny has only eclipsed 200 hits once in his much longer career (predominately in the AL I might add). Who cares about a relatively low OBP when Pierre can consistantly put the ball in play and move Furcal over. Good call Grady, great pick-up Ned and Pierre will make believers out of all you slap hitter critics. Go Blue Crew!
If Saito was a dentist, Smooth Operator would be perfect, but for a Closer we need something that will give the crowd (and the other team) goose bumps.
The place should be rocking and going nuts when he comes in- not “easy listening for your drive home”.
Charris, I agree with you fully. Number 2 hole is not a power slot, and it’s not an OBP slot like the Number 1. “Pierre should be benched” – put that **** to bed. As I mentioned before, he’s the PERFECT candidate for hit-and-run and bunting, which is what he’ll be doing as he sees ALL FASTBALLS with Furcal on base in front of him. He’ll hit over .300 this year because pitchers won’t be able to use their tougher out pitches against him with a rabbit on 1b already. He will be a BETTER offensive player as a No. 2 hitter than as a leadoff.
All you people who say he should bat 8th – if a guy can steal 60+ bases easily, why the **** would you want him batting in front of the PITCHER? OPS is not the only offensive stat. Stop the foolish talk. Everyone.
Furcal at the top makes sense. He really came alive as the year went on. He ended at .300, but started weak–which can be attributed to adjusting to Dodger Stadium or getting fully recovered–and so he was really much better than that the last 4 months. You want to get to him sooner.
But no need to be so quick to criticize Pierre. I think it seemed like an odd move to a lot of people at the beginning of the off-season, but he ended up being right at the market. Hopefully, he improves, and with Furcal on in front of him 35% of the time, he’ll get a lot better pitching. But don’t despair. Grady will stick with it for a while as guys adjust, but he also showed that he was willing to adjust, try things out, and throw people into different slots. We have a lot of options if the “A” plan does not work out. Other than Furcal and Martin, there is no indispensible player and there is a lot of ways that the line-up can be adjusted. I would love uit if it turns out that the opening day line-up is the same as the line-up for Game 1 of the NLDS, but give it some time. This is probably the most promising opening of Spring Training since 1997 or ’96.
There’s no such thing as “not an OBP slot.” It’s always better to not make an out than to make one. Kenny Lofton has 2283 career hits, Pierre only has 1244. What? If you’re going to pretend the period over which anyone collects his hits doesn’t matter, why shouldn’t I?
My statement was “it’s not an OBP slot like the number 1.” In other words, in comparison to the leadoff batter. No. 1 has nothing to do but get on base…as we’ve mentioned, No. 2 has a myriad of things he can do, advancing the runner being the most important – I can’t think of anyone who could advance the runner better and still probably make it to 1st more often than not. The better pitching Pierre will see when Furcal is on will make an enormous difference in his game.
Not only does Pierre not make it to base more often than not, he makes it less often than most. In the history of baseball, nobody has ever pitched around Juan Pierre, so, even if there are some players who benefit from having a protection (or, as you’re positing, reverse protection), it wouldn’t be Pierre.
Once again bokonon your comments are way off track. Sure Lofton has more career hits (2283 to Pierre’s 1244) but he has also played 960 more games (Lofton 1967 to Pierre’s 1007). I’ll do the math for you, thats 1.16 hits per game for Lofton to Pierre’s 1.24 hits per game, so why again is Lofton a better hitter? For that matter who else in the dodgers lineup (Go ahead and include Lofton’s numbers)has collected over 200 hits in 67% of their seasons for their career. Numbers don’t lie, so I think it’s time for you to give credit where credit is due, not only is Juan Pierre a better hitter than Lofton but he is the perfect fit for our line-up which will obviously have to play small ball and manufacture runs this year.
I’m still right on track. You’re correct that their comparing career counting stats of a hitter who has many more games than the player to whom he’s being compared is not fair. But you’re ignoring the unfairness of comparing a player with fewer ABs in a season than the other. That’s the whole reason there’s such a thing as batting average. Pierre bats lead off, and doesn’t walk. Of course he collects more hits. Lofton knows how to walk; this in and of itself makes him more valuable. Back when Lofton was Pierre’s age, he also had some power. Not a lot, but some. Pierre has none. And contrary to your earlier musings, having some power is a good thing, no matter where one hits. Because a double is better than a single. For the same reason getting on base is better than not.
I agree that it’s foolish to WANT Pierre batting eighth. What I really want is for him to be traded to the Giants, in June. But, barring that, and barring his sitting on the bench, I’d settle for his batting eighth. It’s a compromise; I’m open minded.
this is hilarious. everyone who talks **** on pierre right now better be on here to say they were idiots when he takes us to the promised land. no one slaps and bunts for hits better than pierre, this is his ideal situation. the guy has a ring and knows the game of baseball. as much as kenny walks he still gets caught looking quite a bit. im not worried about furcal and pierre the least bit, im worried about nomar, kent, and gonzo getting the hits to cash them in. were only gonna go as far as they take us.a breakout season from Mr. 30/30 Matt Kemp and were gonna win the world series.
Saying that Pierre is a better hitter than Lofton is just incorrect. Not as opinion, as fact. Lofton gets on base 37.2% of the time. Pierre gets on base 35% of the time, and declining each year. And Pierre’s OPS+ (on base % plus slugging % against the league average) is 86. Lofton’s is 107. Now, I haven’t figured out what role heart, or grit, or heartigrittiness or Maury Wills play, but Lofton is just a better hitter. Facts, based on numbers, used to analyze performance. Not assertions based on “intuition” or “beliefs”. 2 is more than 1, 10 is more than 5, and Lofton is a better hitter than Pierre.
And Jeff Weaver has a ring. So does Daryl Strawberry. John Salley has six championship rings in basketball. Being on a good team doesn’t make you a better player. It makes you the same player on a really good team.
How will having Matt Kemp hit thirty home runs for Vegas help win the Dodgers a World Series? That’s what having Pierre slap and tickle his way through the year, means. There are only three OF spots. Two of them are crammed full of garbage. Fifteen million dollars worth of garbage.
Back when I was learning to be a Dodger fan, the fans used to love the team for their upside. They didn’t bag on them for their shortcomings. Panda – JP batted leadoff for that team and hit something like .400 in the series. Bokonon – “crammed full of garbage”?!?!?! Come on!!! That’s absurd!! We have a 200 hit machine in JP and a very accomplished hitter in Gonzo. Matt Kemp needs one more year at AAA – remember he was at AA before his first call up last year. He needs to learn to hit that elusive breaking ball. Once he does, the possibilities are endless. I think Ned did the best thing that he possibly could for the Dodgers. You wanna complain about it? Go hangout on the Giants blog. They have a team worth hating
Nobody wants to hate the Dodgers…That’s just silly. 200 hits don’t mean a thing if you get on base at a clip below league average and have no power. If you get 200 hits and walk 3 times, and I get 150 hits and walk 60 times, I’m a better hitter…I get on base more often. Stop looking at hits, look at how often the person gets on base. That’s the name of the game. Not making outs. And Pierre makes more outs than any player in baseball.
I’m a little testy because the upside of this team was robbed from the jaws of victory. It was so beautiful–Kemp and Loney and Martin and and LaRoche and Ethier and Broxton and Billingsly, et al. But instead of that, I get to spend another year watching washed up veterans take away at bats from the brightly upsided kids. Greg Miller is fighting ELMER DESSENS for a roster spot–why? For what?
There are many great things about it. Juan Pierre isn’t any of them. Pointing that out is not heresy, it’s having two eyes and using them.
Sad-Panda: For such a “numbers” guy, you seemed to have overlooked the most important stat when analyzing a hitter, BATTING AVERAGE. Lofton’s career BA .299, Pierre’s .303, END OF STORY!
By the way career OBA: Pierre .350, Lofton .372, a monsterous .022 difference, thats not telling me that the guy gets on base a ton more. Plus Kenny Lofton is one of those washed-up vets that many keep bashing, Juan Pierre is in his prime. So why again is Lofton so much better than Pierre?
Pierre is 29. Lofton is 39. Ten years from now, if Pierre’s career BA is still higher than Lofton’s, I’ll buy you fifteen dollar beer at a game. END OF STORY!
Oh my goodness. The most important number is not batting average. Batting average merely shows how often batted balls result in getting on base. The total ability of every hitter to get on base is their ON BASE PERCENTAGE. If you go 1 for 3 with no walks, you get on base .333 of the time (1 time on base in three plate appearances). If I go 1 for 4 with a walk, I get on base .400 of the time (2 times on base in 5 plate appearances). You have a better batting average (.333), but I get on base far more often (.400). I hope you understand. If you get on base at a higher rate, you are more likely to score runs. I can’t believe I have to explain this concept.
Let’s see. . .upgrade over a washed up veteran to a guy who’s never been very good, for forty-four million bucks, or run Matt Kemp out there, for free? Tough, tough choice.
Another stat that seems to be overlooked when comparing the 2 is versatility. Kenny Lofton played over 150 games twice in his career, Pierre has played over 150 in all of his full time seasons, including 162 games in the past several. You don’t have to explain OBA to me, but you’re saying that a guy who is basically a 200 hit machine is worse than a guy that had over 200 hits once in his career. That enormous OBA difference of .022 will not score more runs, what will is putting the ball in play and making things happen, especially out of a 2 hole hitter with a speed-demon on in front of him. If you disagree with that, well I guess you just don’t understand this great game of baseball
I’m going to make this really easy. Player A goes 2 for 3 with no walks. Player B goes 0-0 with three walks. Player B gets on base 100% of the time. Player B is better. “But what about the power from those hits…They could be doubles or homers!” you say. “Yes, dear friend, that’s why we use slugging percentage to measure power…Where Juan Pierre has one of the worst slugging percentages in baseball.”
Signing Kenny Lofton for five years would be monumentally dumb. Signing Juan Pierre for five years is monumentally dumb. Both are dumb.
Playing a lot of games per year is a very good thing if the player is any good. In Pierre’s case, it just means more time wasted on him that could be better used by somebody else.
Why do you hate Matt Kemp so much Charris? Is it just that you hate our farm system? Are you a self-hating Dodger fan? It’s okay; I just want to help you through this.
Every projection out there predicts Matt Kemp would absolutely destroy Juan Pierre’s numbers, should they play equal time. It’s not about “proven” this or that. Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard weren’t “proven” when they put up great rookie seasons. It’s only been “proven” that Juan Pierre is a below average offensive player. Literally, his performance is below the average major league player. And we’ve got him for five years. Brilliant.
Bokonon: Matt Kemp is a STUD, has he shown us he can hit a major league breaking ball…no, he will eventually in my opinion, will it happen this year…we don’t know and that is why our management went after a good veteran player. After all Eithier is still a bit of a ****-shoot this year, personally I think he’s going to tear it up, but we don’t know that. Give young players time to develop especially when we have a pitching staff thats ready to take us all the way this year. Rolling the dice with 2 very young outfielders is a bad call when you’re trying to win a championship this season.
Why do you keep saying Pierre is “Good” when you’ve been shown, repeatedly, that he is actually a below average player. Saying five dollars is worth more than ten dollars doesn’t make it so.
Sad-panda: How many .300 career hitters are on the Dodgers? So are all of our hitters below major league standards? I know youre a huge fan of OBA but eventually you need to string hits together to score
How about Loney? Can he hit a breaking ball? He could play RF, Stick Ethier in center, and let Gonzo stink his way quietly through one year. Instead we’ve got Pierre for five. When there will be two great CFs on the market next year, whom we could have thrown all that Pierre money at, if only we hadn’t thrown it at him.
Don’t you want to win a World Series next year, too? Do you think that’s being greedy? It’s okay to want a team that’s good every year. It really is. I promise.
Did you know that of the 150 qualifiers in the National League, Juan Pierre was the 120th best at getting on base? 120th!!111!!!oneoneone11!!!!!
That means he is in the bottom 20% in the league. 80% of all National League regulars are better at hitting than Juan Pierre. That’s not good on any planet, any time, anywhere. In fact, that’s terrible
Why is a single more valuable than a walk? Do they give you free runs for singles? Homers are worth a lot, as are doubles. But Juan Pierre doesn’t have the power to do that, so it doesn’t matter. Please tell me that I don’t have to explain this to adult baseball fans. Pierre’s job is to get on base, and he is below average doing that. In fact, he’s bottom 20% in all the National League!!!!
grafittigenious “this is hilarious. everyone who talks **** on pierre right now better be on here to say they were idiots when he takes us to the promised land.”
I’m on the WAIT & SEE boat & you can quote me on that.
Ah, yes, my friends…I see the argument. Singles can knock in runs…Very good point. Let’s see how many RBI’s Juan Pierre had last year? 40! Wow, that’s not very good, even for a leadoff hitter who plays every game. Let’s see how many RBI’s Furcal had…63! That’s 23 more RBI’s! That’s really good.
one more thing, I didn’t like the signing then & I don’t like the signing now, but I’m a Dodger fan so i’ll do my best & root for the guy to prove us all wrong.
I’m going to chime in one last time since I’ve been ignored. I’ve read Moneyball, I understand your theory of on base + slugging = better hitter. You’re right. As a pure hitter, Pierre is not even close to the best on the team.
But the guy will bunt Furcal over to 2nd 30 times this season, and will still get on base 10-15 of those. He makes great contact, and will move Furcal from 1st to 3rd on another 20-30 occasions on the hit-and-run. When Furcal fails to get on and Pierre succeeds, he will steal 2nd 75% of the time and another 50% of the time make it home on the following base hit from Nomar or Kent. Sure, he doesn’t walk a lot, but when Furcal is on we don’t need him to walk a lot…we need him to bunt or put the ball in play. He’s going to do fine, bat around .305-.310 with all the fastballs he eats (btw I never said pitchers pitched AROUND him – but pitchers don’t throw slow pitches with a rabbit on base, so he WILL get fastballs). He will have 20 sac bunts, 10-15 bunt hits. He will score near 100 runs, even behind Furcal. I’m not crying about him at all. Yeah, I’d love a guy with more power and more patience, but a lot of those guys don’t have the other tools that Pierre has – namely, his speed and his bunting.
Pierre had that dreadful stat on a terrible Cubs team last year, he will be seeing grooved fastballs with the quality sticks around him this year, history shows (revert back to 2004) that Pierre hits better with better talent around him. As for wanting to win every year bokonon, yes I do want our team to contend every year and we’ve definately upgraded our starting rotation to a championship level, plus theres nothing saying that we can’t sign a stud centerfielder next year and bump Pierre to to left or even trade him.
Pierre doesn’t hit enough to stick in CF; you want to move him to LF? Why not 1B? Then we can sell Loney to the Yankees for Carl Pavano. After all, HE HAS A RING!
Okay, so now you want Pierre to bunt Furcal over to second and sacrfice himself instead of walking? You want a runner on second and ONE OUT instead of runners on first AND second with NOBODY OUT?
I can’t believe what I’m reading here. Bunts are outs, outs are bad. Therefore, bunting is almost always bad. And as far as speed, every study ever done on baseball shows that you have to steal at an 80% clip in order to help your team, which Pierre does not. That’s why there are fewer and fewer stolen bases every year. It’s not that stealing ability is going down, it’s because people are learning that stolen bases are a very marginal aspect of the game. Managers are doing less of it, because they have learned it’s not very smart most of the time.
delino4pedro? What kind of name is that? You get some sort of sick joy out of bringing that up? Shame on you, whoever you are and person I’ve never spoken with, ever, at any place.
Okay it’s clear now. sad-panda = stat lover. Moneyball worshipper. I read all of what you said in the book – Beane still hasn’t won based on that philosophy. Two years under DePodesta was enough for me. Although I disagree with Coletti on the length of the Pierre contract, he’s a baseball guy, not a stat *****, and he’s building a team to be feared, OPS be damned.
As I pointed out, at least 1/3 or more of Pierre’s bunts will NOT be sac bunts because of his speed and bunting ability. How much he sac bunts will be up to Little anyway so don’t rip on Pierre for it.
After this, I’m done here. Pierre will be exciting to watch. He will move Furcal into scoring position all the time. He will score almost 100 runs in the 2 slot. He will be an important part of a team that will win 90+ games. As I said, I don’t LOVE his signing, but I know it’s not a disaster. After a productive season, feel free to pick apart his stats all you want, just don’t forget to actually WATCH A FEW GAMES before you determine his value. After this season I think we’ll all be glad we had him (for 4 more years? Maybe not) because he will be reliable and productive, even if his OPS stinks.
I don’t know what that mean, “Stathead” or “Stat-lover.” I appreciate value. I like twenty bucks more than ten bucks. I like Ferraris more than Chevy trucks. I like productive baseball players over below average baseball players. We use numbers to analyze performance. That’s not being a stathead. I hate math. I only use it to find out who the good baseball players are. And Juan Pierre is not one of them.
You can use heart, or grit, or smit, or heargritheart or whatever, but I like things that give me an accurate representation of performance. Using “stathead” as a pejorative term is saying that I’m crazy for using numbers to analyze players. Well, if numbers aren’t important, I’ve got a gritty five dollar bill that I’d love to give you in exchange for your lazy ten dollar bill.
And if you’ve read Moneyball, you would know full well that it’s not about OBP as the guiding light. It’s about exploiting underutilized measurements to gain an advantage in the marketplace. In that case, it was about OBP. Now Beane uses other things.
And method, that you hate so much, has led a 50 million dollar team to more playoff appearances and playoff wins than the Dodgers have had since 1988. In fact, he’s worked with half as much money and been way more effective. So, your kind of, you know, totally wrong. But it’s cool.
You know who I miss? Hee Seop Choi. Man did he ever have some heart? And it was so much fun, chanting his name. Juan Pierre doesn’t have three names, so it wouldn’t be any fun to chant.
J.D. Drew was okay, but his name was actually David Jonathan Drew. So, he was a cheater. Not like my man Choi. I mean, I guess technically, he’d say his name out of order, too. But that’s because he’s Korean, which makes it okay. What was J.D.’s excuse?
Didn’t say I hate stats. Just saying they aren’t everything. Exploiting underutilized elements…sounds like stealing bases in a power era. If Coletti had done it at value, then it would be moneyball, but the fact that he’s trying something other teams aren’t could possibly have some merit. Remember, speed is not quantifiable…there is no stat that says how many times a player beats a throw to first, makes it from first to third or first to home, etc. I am fine with stats, you’re right, they are a valuable way to understand the game, but they are not the whole picture.
I’m wrong on Beane? Yes, he’s a brilliant man. I don’t argue that. But he’s not fielded a team that’s had more than half a chance in the playoffs. Stats mean a lot over a 162-game season, and mean next to nothing in a 5 to 7 game series. Tools and multiple means of run production are what matter offensively in the playoffs. If Coletti trades pitching for power this season, this team has it all. No more hating, give it time to develop.
Three names, yes, but four syllables. You could do the Let’s go Yankee’s, thing, I guess, but that’s a little on the nose, no? Plus, we’ve apparently decided that it’d be better to have Elmer Dessens and Mark Hendrickson on the team than Houlton. But, hey, maybe the D’rays will come sniffing around at trade time. They’re going to want something back for Dustan Mohr.
“Remember, speed is not quantifiable…there is no stat that says how many times a player beats a throw to first, makes it from first to third or first to home, etc.”
There are stats that measure every one of those things you mentioned, actually. When a player beats a throw to first it’s called a “single.” Or in some cases, “reached on error.”
There are stat companies that measure things like how often each runner goes from first to third, how often each outfielder prevents a runner from going first to third, etc. The companies that keep these stats sell them to major league teams.
Because, you know, smart teams care about quantifiable value, not the fact that widdle Juan Pierre looks so cuuuute wearing his sideways cap.
Incidentally, you should know that Pierre’s baserunning actually costs his teams runs, rather than helping his teams score runs. He gets caught stealing so often that his teams would benefit more if he just stood still on first base. This is not opinion, but mathematically proven fact.
wow, we haven’t even played our first spring game and 100
blogs!, This is what makes this all so great, can’t wait for all of us to start telling the Dodgers what we think once the season gets here.
My thoughts are this, forget the past, dream of what can be. I see a great year with furcal, and Pierre at one and two. they can really be great, drive pitchers wild, base hits, stolen bases, runs and setting things up for our 3, 4,and 5 hitters.
Juan Pierre should only bat 9th for an otherwise loaded AL lineup – that puts him back-to-back with the true leadoff man, in the right order, i.e. minimizing Pierre’s plate appearances.
I’d rather see Juan Pierre working with someone like Brett Butler to teach him how to punch the ball harder to the left side and stop hitting so many darn weak grounders to second.
Did you know that Willie Wilson is a lot like Pierre (except Wilson was a very good base stealer) ? Did you know that Willie only had one above-average year at or older than Juan Pierre’s current age? We not only have Pierre for five years, he’s probably on permanent decline.
This little-ball nonsense made some sense back in the 60s when the giants of the 15-inch high pitching mound strode the baseball earth and threw and batter’s heads with near impunity, but baseball is no longer chock-full of Koufaxes, Drysdales, Gibsons, Marichals, Jenkinses, Palmers, McLains, et al. The mound is lower, there are far more mediocre pitchers and the ballparks (except Petco) are smaller. Juan Pierre is an anachronism, a throwback to the deadball-era days.
(I hope rebounds with a .375 OBP, at 85% steal success rate, but I’m not holding my breath.)
Old Fogey, did you know that if you go to websites like baseball-reference.com, and look at the comparable players to Juan Pierre, they’re all players from the Deadball era?
That’s right, Juan Pierre is like players that played when the ball was moosh and 11 home runs per year was king. That’s how bad he is. Great point.
I can see a place for one hopelessly hanging on veteran to mop up in middle relief after starters get completely hosed, but we already have Elmer Dessens and SOMEONE ELSE PAYS HIS SALARY!! Keeping three guys like this must mean that Ned Colletti expect we’ll be on the wrong side of a lot of blowouts, which could happen if Pierre makes 800 or so outs batting leadoff or second.
1) I have never supported the Juan Pierre signing, and my initial reaction when hearing we signed him was fury that he didn’t go to the Giants. By traditional measures, Pierre is the guy – AVG, SB, hits. He gets bunt hits, etc. But the fact is these traditional metrics miss a lot of the game. The ability to get on base, the probability of getting caught stealing, etc, really make a difference.
2) That said I’m frankly sick of everyone complaining about Juan Pierre, particularly the DT chat postings. There is nothing new to add, only more ranting on the same point. His walking ability isn’t great, but his career OBP (admittedly helped a lot by a .300 batting average) is still .350; compare that to .351 with a .286 career BA for Furcal.
3) Defensively, Pierre is actually quite good, despite the fact that his arm isn’t real good. If you don’t believe me, Baseball Think Factory has something to say about it here (scroll down toward the bottom to see the 8s).
Personally, I see it as a vindication of Brad Penny, who called out Kenny Lofton’s nightmarish defense. While Penny shouldn’t have screamed, he was right, and so Colletti got him someone that he could rely on.
4) Do sacrifice bunts create runs? If there is a runner on third and less than two outs, of course. But the question is whether or not this is a price worth paying. In decision making, you have to gauge relative rather than absolute quality; in other words, is bunting the best you can do? For a pitcher, the answer is often yes, but for a position player, there is also a chance of hitting it into or even beyond the outfield. It should be considered, though, that if the pitcher on the mound either has the mental toughness of Jeff Weaver or is completely incapable of fielding his position, bunting may not be as bad of an idea.
5) To put a happy note in here, I’d like to say that Jon SooHoo does an excellent job, and as a result Dodgers.com has more pictures of its players than any other official site. Josh, that picture of you driving the cart with the starting infield needs to be a profile picture or something on the blog.
Ender, of COURSE there are stats covering all of the things I mentioned. However, the number of times a player goes first to third has just as much to do with the players batting behind him – specifically, where they tend to hit the ball. The aspect affected by the players’ speed is not quantifiable, at least not by stats that I am aware of…for instance, when a player makes it from 1b to 3b when 95% of players would stop at 2nd. (This, of course, has everything to do with where the ball ended up on the field, which is not taken into account by a stat which states only how many times a runner advanced from 1st to 3rd.) Or the bunt hit that would have been a sac bunt by 95% of players. That’s my point. There are numbers that say how many times these events happen, but they do not paint the WHOLE PICTURE. Like I said in my last post.
Not that I don’t enjoy debate, but I’m reading a lot of people slamming Coletti and Pierre a lot. That in and of itself is not a problem, but the tone of this blog is much more negative than the average. Criticize the signing you don’t like, criticize the player, that’s fine. But at least post something alongside it that makes the casual reader think that you’re actually a fan of the team. Otherwise we could all just go post on the Giants’ website. If you’re rooting for the Dodgers to lose because you’re mad about a signing or two, go away.
Pointing out how atrocious the Pierre signing is and rooting for the Dodgers to lose are not the same thing. And I have a feeling that Josh, who runs a great blog, is very happy with a free and open exchange of ideas…Especially one that attempts to point out the advances in baseball analysis and works to crush some of the silly myths that have riddled baseball for decades. So, in short, ordering people to go away is neither your job nor indicative of an honest intellectual debate.
Since we haven’t even played one game, why don’t we reserve judgement until we see how these guys play together? Personally, I’m excited about the prospects, and won’t start complaining until I see it’s not working.
I also think some of you folks need to give it a rest, constant repitition doesn’t prove a point, it just bores the rest of us to tears.
Whoa… the regulars go away for a few hours and look what happens. Where was this passion when Pierre signed his deal? I do not like the Pierre signing, not then and not now. But he’s a Dodger and we’re stuck with him for a while, barring injury or whatever, so we might do best to get behind him and hope for the best. I do like the concept of him performing better with high-calibur talent around him… so let’s see what the season brings. If Kemp starts tearing the cover off of the ball again, then he’ll find his way into the lineup… it’s that simple.
Sad Panda, If you’ve read Moneyball, you’re wrong. Moneyball will win you an AL West Division title (some years). But it won’t win a Championship. You can quote me on that. “Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost, for support, not illumination.” – Vin Scully
Pierre is so-so. Gonzo’s the problem. We need a power hitter that can hit at least 30 HRs a year, which Luis cannot do. We don’t have a real power hitter, just like last year. I’m real happy we beefed up the starting rotation, but we should have traded for Andruw Jones. And if we had him instead of Pierre at CF, we would not be having this argument.
“Moneyball” won the Red Sox a title. Yup, Theo Epstein is a Bill James stathead too. In fact, Bill James works for the Red Sox. So your guarantee is already wrong, two seasons before you wrote it.
Also, if you don’t like statistics, what evidence do you use that Andruw Jones is better than Juan Pierre? Hat size? Favorite movie? No, you use numbers to judge performance. You like Andrew Jones because empirical statistical data proves him to be a better player than Juan Pierre.
Theo was in his 1st year, and the team was not completely moneyball. in fact, his moneyball tactics were reflected in his damon trade and his aquisition of wily mo pena. the team in 04 was NOT moneyball. Damon and Manny are not moneyball players, which is why they are looking to get rid of manny. varitek is not a moneyball player, but they know they can’t trade him because the management would lose a lot of support. again the 04 BoSox were not Moneyball
What is Moneyball to you? Please explain to me what you think Moneyball is. I get the idea that you think “Moneyball” is about On Base Percentage, which it’s not. So until we reach common ground on what “Moneyball” is, it’s going to be tough to reach a basis for conversation. Please, explain to me what you think Moneyball is.
he’s a better than average fielder and a much better hitter than pierre. and since he doesn’t pitch, i’d say those are pretty good statistics. I’m not against statistics. If you nplay Fantasy Baseball you can’t be against stats. But I think statistics are not the heart and soul of baseball. So what is the heart and soul of Baseball? –
Babe Ruth’s called shot
Lou Gehrig’s speech at Yankee Stadium
Jackie Robinson
Anibel Sanchez, a rookie who pitched a no hitter
Jim Edmond’s catch behind the back
etc. (i hope you see where I’m going with this)
I don’t think people (and I don’t speak for “people” which is why I use a qualifier) watch baseball to see Nomar bat 300 with 20 HR. I think they watch to see a homerun win a game in dramatic fashion in the Bottom of the 10th.
Those are all wonderful things that you mentioned. They’re part of the glorious past that makes baseball special. It’s a big part of why I’m a fan. But they have nothing to do with evaluating a player’s performance. Every player you named was, or is, a great baseball player. We know this because data tells us so.
Theo was not in his first year when they won the World Series and he never traded for Damon or traded Damon.
They can’t trade Ramirez, because no one will give them anything good for a player making so much money.
Moneyball is about a business approach that is all. The A’s cannot get the type of players they want, because they cost too much. This is why the A’s are now a completely different structured team than they were when the book came out.
I’m gonna head out now. It’s been a real blast chatting with you guys, and I look forward to doing it again. Hopefully, some of this will make you curious about the new and exciting ways in which baseball is analyzed. It’s really an exciting time for people who want to learn as much of the game as possible.
moneyball (as I understand it) is the idea that paying less for players because you can is the way to win. The reason you can is because these players have ceratin statistics that are not thought of as extremely important in the market, and “Moneyballists” (if I may be so bold) value these players differently. No OBP is not Moneyball. OPS is used much more frequently, but many, many other stats are used.
And yes, Moneyball is about business. But you didn’t explain exactly how, nor did you touch on the importance of certain data mining and research. But I’m sure we can do that another time. Take care, and Go Dodgers.
Moneyball is just about taking advantage of undervalued assets in a market. At the time the book was written, on-base percentage and slugging were not stats that were widely used. Now they are, which is why the A’s can’t afford any of those players. The only way for them to get players like that is through the draft and taking risks on free agents (like Big Hurt, Bradley, and Piazza).
Now the A’s concentrate on getting players that play good defense and they are built like the old Dodgers. Pitching depth combined with excellent defense.
Theo was not in his first year when they won the World Series
(your right, i’m wrong)
and he never traded for Damon or traded Damon.
(your right. Damon entered Free agency. Boston has any amount of money it wants, and they easily could have offered Damon a better contract.)
Thanks very much for the insight
As to sad-panda, I’m going to finish by saying that I think Moneyball is a very interesting concept. I guess my real problem with it is not the creation of new stats, it is the complete disregard of the old ‘tried and true” stats.
P.S. Anibel Sanchez is not great. Heck he could turn out to be a complete dud. Or he could turn out to be great. Who knows? But as of right now, he had one great game, but he is not great yet.
Actually, Annibal Sanchez is one of the brightest pitching prospects in baseball. He’s very, very good. But you’re just nit-picking now, and I respect that. That was like the eleventeenth most important thing in that paragraph.
I do however think stats are not the be all and end all when it comes to prospects. Young players are going to go through all kinds of changes, established players are not. When it comes to prospects, I like to blend scouting with production.
I for one Still feel that Furcal should bat #2. He has power and will see far more fastballs if JP gets on base which is better then a third of the time. I think furcal will see junk thrown and make an out then JP will see junk then Nomar gets more junk.JP is a huge defencive upgrade to Lofton who just can’t field anymore and cost alot of runs in plays that were not made but not called errors.Penny was right to Rip him.Loney is a definate X factor this year and La Roche a possible with betemit being the trade bait with anyone of 5 or so pitchers to be named.Or Betemit breaking thru and giving us that 30+ HR player we are looking for beltre had years of up side and when he broke thru he failed again for his new high paying team. Kent wants it and has prepared for it this year Barring fluke injury and playing him no more then 130 games this season with Martinez backing him same with Nomar backed with Loney and La Roche and or Saenz at third for betemit and Loney/ Repko Backing the outfield we have One Very Deep Club.JP is the only player we have as a regular starter that I don’t see capible of hitting 20 HR.Kent if he stays healthy will hit 20 easy Nomar the same Gonzo still could but 15 is more realisticFurcal could @ #2 but 10-15 in leadoff Betemit will hit 20 or so if he is FT Then the fact that we have a catcher that can hit and can run and is also able to steal bases???hmmm is that a stat that anyone looks at?A Real Team Player in Martin and the fact that he is backed by another Catcher who can hit as well as catch a great game factored into the WHOLE picture?Martin will get his Knocks as well.1-8 I see a team that will score 5-6 runs a game and a starting rotation with an era under 4 and a bullpen under 3.5.If we win under 92 games this year barring many injuries I’ll be shocked.If we win less then 86 games this year its all grady and the 3rd base coach fault.And if all the players quit because this Blog is negative then its all the JP Haters/Giants fans talking smack fault.
BTW HEE ***** CHOI was the chant and SF chant is not beat LA its ‘We are ***!’
Okay, since no one’s loving my suggestion of Sade’s “Smooth Operator”, what about “Song 2” by Blur? If no other pitcher uses it, I can see Saito jogging to the mound from the bullpen and Dodger stadium rocking to it.
i have never read such a macho blogger who seems to have all the answers and knows so much. sad panda let me ask you one question since you wanna play keyboard gm, what should ned have done with whats available? you would be the type of dodger fan that would have whined had we not made any moves right. im sorry if you think rooting for the dodgers entails ripping guys who havent played a game yet at 11 45 at night. no one blogs at that hour you clown. did you expect someone to come on here and argue with some bitter drunk from san francisco at that hour? get real pal you guys got zito stop whining? true schmidt is with us and its gonna be hard for you guys but go start a giants blog or something. its not about being a blind fan, its called rooting for your squad no matter what. if you wanna cry and complain that ned didnt use his resources to get players then thats one thing, but we got better as a club and we have plenty of time and resources to make a trade if ones available. next time go take your xanax, and then come rant and rave on how Lofton is SOOOO MUCH BETTER THAN pierre. one thing is for certain you sure soaked up that knowledge from all those years of debate class.
LETS TALK BASEBALL AT A DECENT HOUR!!!!!! Who wants to argue if wilton guerrero was a better player than joe thurston????? get at me sad panda anytime you wanna talk some serious baseball with your new groundbreaking ways of being the ultimate fan and student of the game.
171 Blog entries is a mess when 141 of them are two or three guys bickering back and forth… I suggest this type of thing get settles between the guys involved over email offline- It’s no fun scrolling through page after page of two guys duking it out…. making points and baseball debate is awesome, but lets try to keep it to less than 10 posts per person….. all in favor?
Wow, I am amazed at the animosity towards a guy who hasn’t even had a chance to play a game yet. This must be where all the annoying and obnoxious “dodgers” fans come from when I am at a game. Probably the type to boo a pitcher when he is having a bad night rather then supporting him as a fan should. It is also the type to chant “Barry *****” over and over, when we know he feeds off that noise. Why not give him complete silence and see how he handles that or try cheering our team on instead of cussing and jeering the other team. I am convinced that 20% of the people at a Dodger game are there for the love of the game and the team, and the other 80% came to **** and moan, drink beer, or got dragged along by some office party.
I agree completely with the last 7 posts. Whether or not Pierre was a good signing is simply a matter of opinion. As with most players there a slew of stats that speak well of him, and a slew of stats that arent the best. I just want to reflect on my absolute favorite line of this mess, and it comes courtesy of sad-panda: “If you get 200 hits and 3 walks, and i get 150 hits nad 60 walks, I am a better hitter.” I know you only say this bc of OBP, which is probably like .04 % higher in the latter case. But OBP really is a questionable stat, bc when you ROE and Fielder’s CHoice, that counts towards OBP, but has nothing to do with the quality of hitter. Personally, i’d take the 200 hit guy 10 out of 10 times; if only bc you came up with a stupid example; no one who has 200 hits will ever have walks.
Pierre is a great, all-around baseball player, that is going to help this team in many more ways than one. When you look at the market, Pierre was the best possible signing to make, and we did, and that makes me happy. GO NED! We can always trade him, and its not like we are paying him a ton of money, as in i dont think any team would be scared off by the prospect of picking up his contract– Anyone who think Matt Kemp should start the season starting is stupid, and im very glad Colletti is out GM..
i trust ned made the right moves and tried, but i want to know where this 96 million offer to soriano came from. i didnt hear anything about the dodgers being contenders for any big power hitter.
Pierre or not to Pierre, that is the question. I was not a big fan of the signing of JP or Gonzo, but I’ll wait and see how it plays out. I’m sure if it does not work Ned will fix it. PS. What’s wrong with being born with a tail?
As for what Colletti could have done instead, I would have gone with Repko for a year, when Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Ichiro will be on the market.
I’ve made my peace with the deal, but I’m just saying what I thought was the case here.
So you guys don’t like the fact that Juan Pierre is a bad player, you don’t like statheads, you don’t like statistical analysis, and whoever doesn’t like the signing is stupid or a traitor or a Giants fan. Nice to see the maturity coming from you guys. I may not agree with you, but nobody on this side is getting into petty name calling.
sad-panda77, the only thing I can agree with you on is the petty name calling !! Although I can see some of your reasoning I think your way to hung up on whose numbers mean more. Fact is no two games are alike and numbers are results not potential. A player does things differently when playing for a contender vs a last place team. And hits a lot different playing 80+ home games in a hitters ball park vs a pitchers ball park. I think this guy is a good ball player and in todays market $44 million looks a lot cheaper then $126 million, which is what Ned had to deal with this off season. We all hope Kemp will make the adjustments and prevail but that has yet to be proven and it needs to be proven in Las Vegas, not LA. I can’t remember who it was that suggested we should bit the bullet and get rid of the veterens and move up all the kids this year, but that’s just dumb baseball. This team is positioned to win the Division as best as the market will allow. Our hopes are for the kids to prevail but not all at once and thus we pick our spots carefully. I think if you check out the minors carefully we don’t have any jack rabbitts in the system that look to be coming up so a solid lead off hitter is a good investment long term. JP makes solid business and baseball sense, even though some of you have a burr in your saddle against him.
Well said. the bottom line is that we all love the team and root like the Dickens for the Dodgers. We may not agree on how to maximize the talent, but we’re all Dodger fans. I don’t think calling people “traitors” or “Giants fans” is very productive. It wouldn’t be very fun if we all thought the exact same way.
Equally well said, so with that in mind is it possible that we can lose the “Eats Puppies” stuff, my 12 year old daughter is asking me all kinds of questions about that one !! Yes she reads this blog religously !!
Sure. The “eat puppies” thing was directed at the poster named Trainwreck, who is a very good friend of mine. We decided to post on this site on the same day, and it was kind of an inside joke. I would be happy to do away with the “eats puppies” thing. It was an inside joke between two friends. Tell your wonderful daughter that no puppies were harmed in the making of these posts!
didnt seem like an inside joke the other night. it was obvious you three guys were buddies just trying to stir up a relatively calm and civilized blog. now you come here and whine that your feelings got hurt because i called you a midget fan. come on man, your good at arguing that lofton is better than pierre ut dont act like those statements were anyway supportive of the dodgers. i was one of the first on here to say that was dumb move especially the way anderson played down the stretch and weve seen a little of what repko can do. then i grew up and realized gary matthews got too much money gil meche got too much money. it wasnt that bad of a deal considering. he can fill in where lofton left off just save your rants until after weve seen a pitch .
That’s the right move. Furcal is much better at getting on base , and Pierre can bunt him over. Also that way you’re not putting pressure on Furcal to try and hit homeruns.
As for Sammy’s song. I vote for (I want to be sedated) by the Ramones. That’s what he does to hitters.
Saito’s Song…
“Godzilla” by Blue oyster Cult
Perfect dramatic opening chords for his entrance. “Go Go Godzilla!”
Our closer is a monster! Plus it has a perfect Japanese flair!
Furcal has more pop. Better OBP. Had great success last year in that role. AWESOME!!!!
There’s nothing wrong with either choice. I would rather see Rafy hitting first and Pierre second, but if Grady chose to go Pierre first and Rafy third, both are fine.
i agree furcal is good right there, juan pierre will just be a younger faster kenny lofton that puts the ball in play all over, he should see some fastballs to slap around for sure.
as for the song it has nothing to do with japanese culture or baseball but he was nothing short of the song title last year. so i choose lights out by UFO. please tell me someone on this blog has heard of them.
Ill go ahead and say it- Pierre should be hitting 8th. Thats really where he belongs given his numbers (low OBP, low SLG) I dont care who’s feelings are hurt etc…. thats what’s best for the team, thats where he belongs.
Although I had previously thought that Pierre would be a better #1 since Furcal has more versatility (and gap power), I think that batting Pierre #2 will let Little have a lot of fun. With Pierre’s skills as a slap hitter/bunter, teams will constantly be afraid of the hit and run, the bunt for a hit, the fake bunt, the sac bunt turned base hit…I think these two will wreak havoc on a defense in this order. Plus, having Furcal on base in front of Pierre will probably make Pierre a more dangerous hitter than when he’s leading off. What do you guys think?
Drj – tell Maury Wills that. He says Pierre should bat leadoff. “He’s a natural leadoff hitter” – direct quote from Maury Wills.
I think it’s a respect thing !! Furcal deserves to keep his spot and Pierre needs to earn the spot. Furcal does have a history of pouting when he doesn’t get respect. To move him would send the wrong message that the Dodgers respect Pierre more then they do him. Either way, if we’re winning I think both players will do what’s best for the team.
Go Dodgers !!
Here are my suggestions for Saito’s song:
God Save the Queen — Sex Pistols
One Step Closer — Linkin Park
Like many of you guys, I can live with either Furcal or Pierre leading off, but I’d much rather have Furcal in that spot – for several reasons:
Last season, with Lofton batting second, Kenny rarely hit into a DP with Furcal on first base (usually because Furcal stole second). I see the same thing happening with Pierre in the number two spot. With Furcal on second base and with Pierre’s history of multiple 200+ (slap) hit seasons, Furcal stands to score even more runs than he did last season when Lofton hit behind him.
Now here’s a stat that I had to check twice to make sure that I had it right: Last season, Furcal hit 15 total home runs. SIX of those were first inning lead off home runs. That’s 40% of his total home runs for the season! (Don’t forget that Furcal played hurt for the first two months of the season). Pierre had a total of three home runs last season, of which only one was a first inning lead off home run. Sure it’s nice to have guys on base when one of your better power hitters like Furcal (did I just say that out loud) comes up, but NOTHING fires up a team (and the home crowd) like a first inning lead off home run, and Raffy ROCKS at that.
Pierre is also a much better bunter than Furcal (or Lofton), so here is another plus in having Pierre bat in the number two spot behind Furcal.
All of that being said, I kind of think that Grady should have held off a bit in naming his opening day starter and his lead off hitter until the Dodgers had a few Spring Training games under their belts – but that is just my opinion.
GO DODGERS!
PS: Only 46 more days until the home opener!
PS: As for Saito’s entrance song, I like T.N.T. by ACDC!
glad to see Grady make a good decision. Now if only he bats Russell second and Pierre 8th.
What aboutthe Top Gun Anthem for Saito? That opening rift is awesome, but somewhat subtle. Like Saito.
alright thats two comments now regarding pierre 8th. the bottom line is guys we are going with the same approach as last year, same lineup same concept pretty much. we didnt get a power hitter and dont foresee a game changing one breaking out on our roster as is. before you criticize and think that your on to something people are afraid to say you should think a little more because we havent even seen a game played. for now go with last years model, if its not working its not working, but it worked well enough for us last year.
“Smooth Operator” by Sade
…because his delivery is the smoothest in the league!!
The above comment is referring to Saito’s entrance/warm-up song.
I agree graffitigenius. If we go in to this season with essentially the same line-up, that is perfectly fine. They had no proplem scoring runs and a full season of Betemit (hopefully) can add 20-25 HR’s in my opinion.. And with a superior Pitching staff, they have what it takes to be a major contender… I’M HUNGRY FOR A WORLD SERIES! GO BLUE!!
rgonza “”Smooth Operator” by Sade”
You know I was thinking just that the other day.
We need to work with what we have and if it looks a lot like last year so be it !! After all we did make the playoff’s and had we been healthy more often then not we would have done much better. This is a team with spirit and determination !! I believe in what we have today and if we need something tomorrow Ned has proven to us he is willing to go after it the best he can with what he has to offer !!
Go Dodgers !!!
Lofton is a better hitter than Pierre. Just because they’re both fast, doesn’t mean they’re the same player. The only non-pitcher likely to make the team this year who is a worse hitter than Pierre is Ramon Martinez. The right answer is to bench Pierre; but batting him eighth would be the second best choice.
how about BULLS ON PARADE By Rage Against The Machine, the riff to that song rocks.
Lofton is better then Pierre. Pierre OBP is too low for him to bat leadoff or even second. Plus he doesnt walk alot. We would have been better off signing lofton to a one year deal. Id have the lineup of…
Furcal
Martin
Nomar
Kent
Gonzo/Kemp
Ethier
Betemit
Pierre
Love the team this year, love the job Ned has done… I just think the team is better with JP in the 8 hole. Like Izturis.
“Headstrong” by Trapt. “Back off, I’ll take you on. Headstrong, I’ll take on anyone. I know that you are wrong, this is not where you belong.” If I remember correctly, that’s the chorus(I edited one part of it a bit). Good rock riff too.
Excerpts of ‘Smooth Operator’:
“…playing high stakes”
(having the role of closer)
“…he moves in space with minimum waste, maximum joy”
(Saito doesn’t exert/waste much effort when throwing.. and when he gets that save, he’s ALL smiles!)
“..smooth operator.. coast to coast, L.A. to Chicago..”
(Smooth Saito IS a smooth operator from coast to coast!)
All right, I’m a huge dodger fan and I have to say that getting Pierre was a great move for our team. He is a perfect 2 hitter as he is one of the best bunters/contact hitters in baseball. It is essentially a 2 hitters job to move over the lead-off man for the bigger sticks. All this nonsense I’m reading about Pierre batting 8th or Pierre being the worst hitter in our line-up is so so far from the truth. He might only be a slap hitter but he has collected over 200 hits in 4 of his 6 full seasons, by the way bokonon “Lofton is a better hitter than Pierre” Kenny has only eclipsed 200 hits once in his much longer career (predominately in the AL I might add). Who cares about a relatively low OBP when Pierre can consistantly put the ball in play and move Furcal over. Good call Grady, great pick-up Ned and Pierre will make believers out of all you slap hitter critics. Go Blue Crew!
If Saito was a dentist, Smooth Operator would be perfect, but for a Closer we need something that will give the crowd (and the other team) goose bumps.
The place should be rocking and going nuts when he comes in- not “easy listening for your drive home”.
Charris, I agree with you fully. Number 2 hole is not a power slot, and it’s not an OBP slot like the Number 1. “Pierre should be benched” – put that **** to bed. As I mentioned before, he’s the PERFECT candidate for hit-and-run and bunting, which is what he’ll be doing as he sees ALL FASTBALLS with Furcal on base in front of him. He’ll hit over .300 this year because pitchers won’t be able to use their tougher out pitches against him with a rabbit on 1b already. He will be a BETTER offensive player as a No. 2 hitter than as a leadoff.
All you people who say he should bat 8th – if a guy can steal 60+ bases easily, why the **** would you want him batting in front of the PITCHER? OPS is not the only offensive stat. Stop the foolish talk. Everyone.
Amen puppyhead, their are a ton of intangibles that go into setting a line-up and Pierre has been the obvious choice for the 2 hole all along.
Furcal at the top makes sense. He really came alive as the year went on. He ended at .300, but started weak–which can be attributed to adjusting to Dodger Stadium or getting fully recovered–and so he was really much better than that the last 4 months. You want to get to him sooner.
But no need to be so quick to criticize Pierre. I think it seemed like an odd move to a lot of people at the beginning of the off-season, but he ended up being right at the market. Hopefully, he improves, and with Furcal on in front of him 35% of the time, he’ll get a lot better pitching. But don’t despair. Grady will stick with it for a while as guys adjust, but he also showed that he was willing to adjust, try things out, and throw people into different slots. We have a lot of options if the “A” plan does not work out. Other than Furcal and Martin, there is no indispensible player and there is a lot of ways that the line-up can be adjusted. I would love uit if it turns out that the opening day line-up is the same as the line-up for Game 1 of the NLDS, but give it some time. This is probably the most promising opening of Spring Training since 1997 or ’96.
There’s no such thing as “not an OBP slot.” It’s always better to not make an out than to make one. Kenny Lofton has 2283 career hits, Pierre only has 1244. What? If you’re going to pretend the period over which anyone collects his hits doesn’t matter, why shouldn’t I?
My statement was “it’s not an OBP slot like the number 1.” In other words, in comparison to the leadoff batter. No. 1 has nothing to do but get on base…as we’ve mentioned, No. 2 has a myriad of things he can do, advancing the runner being the most important – I can’t think of anyone who could advance the runner better and still probably make it to 1st more often than not. The better pitching Pierre will see when Furcal is on will make an enormous difference in his game.
Look for Furcal to score 150 runs this year.
Not only does Pierre not make it to base more often than not, he makes it less often than most. In the history of baseball, nobody has ever pitched around Juan Pierre, so, even if there are some players who benefit from having a protection (or, as you’re positing, reverse protection), it wouldn’t be Pierre.
Once again bokonon your comments are way off track. Sure Lofton has more career hits (2283 to Pierre’s 1244) but he has also played 960 more games (Lofton 1967 to Pierre’s 1007). I’ll do the math for you, thats 1.16 hits per game for Lofton to Pierre’s 1.24 hits per game, so why again is Lofton a better hitter? For that matter who else in the dodgers lineup (Go ahead and include Lofton’s numbers)has collected over 200 hits in 67% of their seasons for their career. Numbers don’t lie, so I think it’s time for you to give credit where credit is due, not only is Juan Pierre a better hitter than Lofton but he is the perfect fit for our line-up which will obviously have to play small ball and manufacture runs this year.
Not to mention Pierre is a much better fielder than Kenny has been for the last 5 years…
I’m still right on track. You’re correct that their comparing career counting stats of a hitter who has many more games than the player to whom he’s being compared is not fair. But you’re ignoring the unfairness of comparing a player with fewer ABs in a season than the other. That’s the whole reason there’s such a thing as batting average. Pierre bats lead off, and doesn’t walk. Of course he collects more hits. Lofton knows how to walk; this in and of itself makes him more valuable. Back when Lofton was Pierre’s age, he also had some power. Not a lot, but some. Pierre has none. And contrary to your earlier musings, having some power is a good thing, no matter where one hits. Because a double is better than a single. For the same reason getting on base is better than not.
IMHO, every post that charris
has made, has been on the money. right on the schnootz.
Grumble ALL you want, but it’s
very foolish, to want Pierre
to bat 8th. So far, all is headed in the right direction.
LET IT BE….RELAX……
I agree that it’s foolish to WANT Pierre batting eighth. What I really want is for him to be traded to the Giants, in June. But, barring that, and barring his sitting on the bench, I’d settle for his batting eighth. It’s a compromise; I’m open minded.
this is hilarious. everyone who talks **** on pierre right now better be on here to say they were idiots when he takes us to the promised land. no one slaps and bunts for hits better than pierre, this is his ideal situation. the guy has a ring and knows the game of baseball. as much as kenny walks he still gets caught looking quite a bit. im not worried about furcal and pierre the least bit, im worried about nomar, kent, and gonzo getting the hits to cash them in. were only gonna go as far as they take us.a breakout season from Mr. 30/30 Matt Kemp and were gonna win the world series.
ive been having dreams hes just gonna bust his way in the lineup this spring and show us the matt kemp we first saw last year.
Saying that Pierre is a better hitter than Lofton is just incorrect. Not as opinion, as fact. Lofton gets on base 37.2% of the time. Pierre gets on base 35% of the time, and declining each year. And Pierre’s OPS+ (on base % plus slugging % against the league average) is 86. Lofton’s is 107. Now, I haven’t figured out what role heart, or grit, or heartigrittiness or Maury Wills play, but Lofton is just a better hitter. Facts, based on numbers, used to analyze performance. Not assertions based on “intuition” or “beliefs”. 2 is more than 1, 10 is more than 5, and Lofton is a better hitter than Pierre.
And Jeff Weaver has a ring. So does Daryl Strawberry. John Salley has six championship rings in basketball. Being on a good team doesn’t make you a better player. It makes you the same player on a really good team.
How will having Matt Kemp hit thirty home runs for Vegas help win the Dodgers a World Series? That’s what having Pierre slap and tickle his way through the year, means. There are only three OF spots. Two of them are crammed full of garbage. Fifteen million dollars worth of garbage.
Back when I was learning to be a Dodger fan, the fans used to love the team for their upside. They didn’t bag on them for their shortcomings. Panda – JP batted leadoff for that team and hit something like .400 in the series. Bokonon – “crammed full of garbage”?!?!?! Come on!!! That’s absurd!! We have a 200 hit machine in JP and a very accomplished hitter in Gonzo. Matt Kemp needs one more year at AAA – remember he was at AA before his first call up last year. He needs to learn to hit that elusive breaking ball. Once he does, the possibilities are endless. I think Ned did the best thing that he possibly could for the Dodgers. You wanna complain about it? Go hangout on the Giants blog. They have a team worth hating
Nobody wants to hate the Dodgers…That’s just silly. 200 hits don’t mean a thing if you get on base at a clip below league average and have no power. If you get 200 hits and walk 3 times, and I get 150 hits and walk 60 times, I’m a better hitter…I get on base more often. Stop looking at hits, look at how often the person gets on base. That’s the name of the game. Not making outs. And Pierre makes more outs than any player in baseball.
I’m a little testy because the upside of this team was robbed from the jaws of victory. It was so beautiful–Kemp and Loney and Martin and and LaRoche and Ethier and Broxton and Billingsly, et al. But instead of that, I get to spend another year watching washed up veterans take away at bats from the brightly upsided kids. Greg Miller is fighting ELMER DESSENS for a roster spot–why? For what?
There are many great things about it. Juan Pierre isn’t any of them. Pointing that out is not heresy, it’s having two eyes and using them.
Sad-Panda: For such a “numbers” guy, you seemed to have overlooked the most important stat when analyzing a hitter, BATTING AVERAGE. Lofton’s career BA .299, Pierre’s .303, END OF STORY!
By the way career OBA: Pierre .350, Lofton .372, a monsterous .022 difference, thats not telling me that the guy gets on base a ton more. Plus Kenny Lofton is one of those washed-up vets that many keep bashing, Juan Pierre is in his prime. So why again is Lofton so much better than Pierre?
Pierre is 29. Lofton is 39. Ten years from now, if Pierre’s career BA is still higher than Lofton’s, I’ll buy you fifteen dollar beer at a game. END OF STORY!
Let’s see…keep a “washed up veteran” or upgrade to essentially the same type player in his prime? Hmm, tough decision.
Oh my goodness. The most important number is not batting average. Batting average merely shows how often batted balls result in getting on base. The total ability of every hitter to get on base is their ON BASE PERCENTAGE. If you go 1 for 3 with no walks, you get on base .333 of the time (1 time on base in three plate appearances). If I go 1 for 4 with a walk, I get on base .400 of the time (2 times on base in 5 plate appearances). You have a better batting average (.333), but I get on base far more often (.400). I hope you understand. If you get on base at a higher rate, you are more likely to score runs. I can’t believe I have to explain this concept.
Let’s see. . .upgrade over a washed up veteran to a guy who’s never been very good, for forty-four million bucks, or run Matt Kemp out there, for free? Tough, tough choice.
Another stat that seems to be overlooked when comparing the 2 is versatility. Kenny Lofton played over 150 games twice in his career, Pierre has played over 150 in all of his full time seasons, including 162 games in the past several. You don’t have to explain OBA to me, but you’re saying that a guy who is basically a 200 hit machine is worse than a guy that had over 200 hits once in his career. That enormous OBA difference of .022 will not score more runs, what will is putting the ball in play and making things happen, especially out of a 2 hole hitter with a speed-demon on in front of him. If you disagree with that, well I guess you just don’t understand this great game of baseball
I’m going to make this really easy. Player A goes 2 for 3 with no walks. Player B goes 0-0 with three walks. Player B gets on base 100% of the time. Player B is better. “But what about the power from those hits…They could be doubles or homers!” you say. “Yes, dear friend, that’s why we use slugging percentage to measure power…Where Juan Pierre has one of the worst slugging percentages in baseball.”
Signing Kenny Lofton for five years would be monumentally dumb. Signing Juan Pierre for five years is monumentally dumb. Both are dumb.
A rookie that needs development or a proven major league player, and when $ isn’t really an issue why not get the best potential fit to win this year?
Playing a lot of games per year is a very good thing if the player is any good. In Pierre’s case, it just means more time wasted on him that could be better used by somebody else.
Why do you hate Matt Kemp so much Charris? Is it just that you hate our farm system? Are you a self-hating Dodger fan? It’s okay; I just want to help you through this.
Every projection out there predicts Matt Kemp would absolutely destroy Juan Pierre’s numbers, should they play equal time. It’s not about “proven” this or that. Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard weren’t “proven” when they put up great rookie seasons. It’s only been “proven” that Juan Pierre is a below average offensive player. Literally, his performance is below the average major league player. And we’ve got him for five years. Brilliant.
Bokonon: Matt Kemp is a STUD, has he shown us he can hit a major league breaking ball…no, he will eventually in my opinion, will it happen this year…we don’t know and that is why our management went after a good veteran player. After all Eithier is still a bit of a ****-shoot this year, personally I think he’s going to tear it up, but we don’t know that. Give young players time to develop especially when we have a pitching staff thats ready to take us all the way this year. Rolling the dice with 2 very young outfielders is a bad call when you’re trying to win a championship this season.
Why do you keep saying Pierre is “Good” when you’ve been shown, repeatedly, that he is actually a below average player. Saying five dollars is worth more than ten dollars doesn’t make it so.
Sad-panda: How many .300 career hitters are on the Dodgers? So are all of our hitters below major league standards? I know youre a huge fan of OBA but eventually you need to string hits together to score
How about Loney? Can he hit a breaking ball? He could play RF, Stick Ethier in center, and let Gonzo stink his way quietly through one year. Instead we’ve got Pierre for five. When there will be two great CFs on the market next year, whom we could have thrown all that Pierre money at, if only we hadn’t thrown it at him.
Don’t you want to win a World Series next year, too? Do you think that’s being greedy? It’s okay to want a team that’s good every year. It really is. I promise.
Did you know that of the 150 qualifiers in the National League, Juan Pierre was the 120th best at getting on base? 120th!!111!!!oneoneone11!!!!!
That means he is in the bottom 20% in the league. 80% of all National League regulars are better at hitting than Juan Pierre. That’s not good on any planet, any time, anywhere. In fact, that’s terrible
Why is a single more valuable than a walk? Do they give you free runs for singles? Homers are worth a lot, as are doubles. But Juan Pierre doesn’t have the power to do that, so it doesn’t matter. Please tell me that I don’t have to explain this to adult baseball fans. Pierre’s job is to get on base, and he is below average doing that. In fact, he’s bottom 20% in all the National League!!!!
grafittigenious “this is hilarious. everyone who talks **** on pierre right now better be on here to say they were idiots when he takes us to the promised land.”
I’m on the WAIT & SEE boat & you can quote me on that.
Go Dodges ’07 campaign!
Ah, yes, my friends…I see the argument. Singles can knock in runs…Very good point. Let’s see how many RBI’s Juan Pierre had last year? 40! Wow, that’s not very good, even for a leadoff hitter who plays every game. Let’s see how many RBI’s Furcal had…63! That’s 23 more RBI’s! That’s really good.
one more thing, I didn’t like the signing then & I don’t like the signing now, but I’m a Dodger fan so i’ll do my best & root for the guy to prove us all wrong.
I’m going to chime in one last time since I’ve been ignored. I’ve read Moneyball, I understand your theory of on base + slugging = better hitter. You’re right. As a pure hitter, Pierre is not even close to the best on the team.
But the guy will bunt Furcal over to 2nd 30 times this season, and will still get on base 10-15 of those. He makes great contact, and will move Furcal from 1st to 3rd on another 20-30 occasions on the hit-and-run. When Furcal fails to get on and Pierre succeeds, he will steal 2nd 75% of the time and another 50% of the time make it home on the following base hit from Nomar or Kent. Sure, he doesn’t walk a lot, but when Furcal is on we don’t need him to walk a lot…we need him to bunt or put the ball in play. He’s going to do fine, bat around .305-.310 with all the fastballs he eats (btw I never said pitchers pitched AROUND him – but pitchers don’t throw slow pitches with a rabbit on base, so he WILL get fastballs). He will have 20 sac bunts, 10-15 bunt hits. He will score near 100 runs, even behind Furcal. I’m not crying about him at all. Yeah, I’d love a guy with more power and more patience, but a lot of those guys don’t have the other tools that Pierre has – namely, his speed and his bunting.
Pierre had that dreadful stat on a terrible Cubs team last year, he will be seeing grooved fastballs with the quality sticks around him this year, history shows (revert back to 2004) that Pierre hits better with better talent around him. As for wanting to win every year bokonon, yes I do want our team to contend every year and we’ve definately upgraded our starting rotation to a championship level, plus theres nothing saying that we can’t sign a stud centerfielder next year and bump Pierre to to left or even trade him.
Pierre doesn’t hit enough to stick in CF; you want to move him to LF? Why not 1B? Then we can sell Loney to the Yankees for Carl Pavano. After all, HE HAS A RING!
Once again puppyhead on the $ man, finally someone chiming in with baseball sense
Can we get back to the Saito song?
Pierre-gate has gotten a little long in the tooth.
Okay, so now you want Pierre to bunt Furcal over to second and sacrfice himself instead of walking? You want a runner on second and ONE OUT instead of runners on first AND second with NOBODY OUT?
I can’t believe what I’m reading here. Bunts are outs, outs are bad. Therefore, bunting is almost always bad. And as far as speed, every study ever done on baseball shows that you have to steal at an 80% clip in order to help your team, which Pierre does not. That’s why there are fewer and fewer stolen bases every year. It’s not that stealing ability is going down, it’s because people are learning that stolen bases are a very marginal aspect of the game. Managers are doing less of it, because they have learned it’s not very smart most of the time.
Think how long in the tooth it’ll be by next spring. And the next one. And the one after that. And the next one. . .
So, I’m evidently supposed to believe that there is a positive relationship between sacrifice bunts and scoring runs.
Is this based on statistics that I can look at, or is this just “common knowledge”…?
Well. There goes the neighborhood. I hope you’re happy, sad-panda.
delino4pedro? What kind of name is that? You get some sort of sick joy out of bringing that up? Shame on you, whoever you are and person I’ve never spoken with, ever, at any place.
Okay it’s clear now. sad-panda = stat lover. Moneyball worshipper. I read all of what you said in the book – Beane still hasn’t won based on that philosophy. Two years under DePodesta was enough for me. Although I disagree with Coletti on the length of the Pierre contract, he’s a baseball guy, not a stat *****, and he’s building a team to be feared, OPS be damned.
As I pointed out, at least 1/3 or more of Pierre’s bunts will NOT be sac bunts because of his speed and bunting ability. How much he sac bunts will be up to Little anyway so don’t rip on Pierre for it.
After this, I’m done here. Pierre will be exciting to watch. He will move Furcal into scoring position all the time. He will score almost 100 runs in the 2 slot. He will be an important part of a team that will win 90+ games. As I said, I don’t LOVE his signing, but I know it’s not a disaster. After a productive season, feel free to pick apart his stats all you want, just don’t forget to actually WATCH A FEW GAMES before you determine his value. After this season I think we’ll all be glad we had him (for 4 more years? Maybe not) because he will be reliable and productive, even if his OPS stinks.
I don’t know what that mean, “Stathead” or “Stat-lover.” I appreciate value. I like twenty bucks more than ten bucks. I like Ferraris more than Chevy trucks. I like productive baseball players over below average baseball players. We use numbers to analyze performance. That’s not being a stathead. I hate math. I only use it to find out who the good baseball players are. And Juan Pierre is not one of them.
You can use heart, or grit, or smit, or heargritheart or whatever, but I like things that give me an accurate representation of performance. Using “stathead” as a pejorative term is saying that I’m crazy for using numbers to analyze players. Well, if numbers aren’t important, I’ve got a gritty five dollar bill that I’d love to give you in exchange for your lazy ten dollar bill.
“He will score almost 100 runs in the 2 slot”
Does “100 runs” count as a “stat”…?
And if you’ve read Moneyball, you would know full well that it’s not about OBP as the guiding light. It’s about exploiting underutilized measurements to gain an advantage in the marketplace. In that case, it was about OBP. Now Beane uses other things.
And method, that you hate so much, has led a 50 million dollar team to more playoff appearances and playoff wins than the Dodgers have had since 1988. In fact, he’s worked with half as much money and been way more effective. So, your kind of, you know, totally wrong. But it’s cool.
Totally wrong like a fox!
You know who I miss? Hee Seop Choi. Man did he ever have some heart? And it was so much fun, chanting his name. Juan Pierre doesn’t have three names, so it wouldn’t be any fun to chant.
Hee Seop Choi!
Hee Seop Choi!
Hee Seop Choi!
I miss Arrested Development. Man, that was a good show. Remember Carl Weathers? Man, that guy loved a good stew.
Know who I really miss? Who’s name you could chant to.
JD Drew
Choi was the best. I wish Jim Tracy would have given him a real shot. I chanted his name too! Those were good times.
Heep Seop Choi was my favorite Dodger.
J.D. Drew was okay, but his name was actually David Jonathan Drew. So, he was a cheater. Not like my man Choi. I mean, I guess technically, he’d say his name out of order, too. But that’s because he’s Korean, which makes it okay. What was J.D.’s excuse?
Didn’t say I hate stats. Just saying they aren’t everything. Exploiting underutilized elements…sounds like stealing bases in a power era. If Coletti had done it at value, then it would be moneyball, but the fact that he’s trying something other teams aren’t could possibly have some merit. Remember, speed is not quantifiable…there is no stat that says how many times a player beats a throw to first, makes it from first to third or first to home, etc. I am fine with stats, you’re right, they are a valuable way to understand the game, but they are not the whole picture.
I’m wrong on Beane? Yes, he’s a brilliant man. I don’t argue that. But he’s not fielded a team that’s had more than half a chance in the playoffs. Stats mean a lot over a 162-game season, and mean next to nothing in a 5 to 7 game series. Tools and multiple means of run production are what matter offensively in the playoffs. If Coletti trades pitching for power this season, this team has it all. No more hating, give it time to develop.
That is true about Drew, but at least he had more heart and fire than Paul Lo Duca.
Now that guy is a total three name faker.
Finally some one with some sense! I wouldn’t trade James Earle Ray for Paul Lo Duca.
I always wondered why the DJ Houlton chant never got going.
Oh, man. LoDuca. That guy had heart. And soul. But mostly heart. Well, actually, it was like 62.5% heart and 37.5% soul.
And really sweet facial hair.
Three names, yes, but four syllables. You could do the Let’s go Yankee’s, thing, I guess, but that’s a little on the nose, no? Plus, we’ve apparently decided that it’d be better to have Elmer Dessens and Mark Hendrickson on the team than Houlton. But, hey, maybe the D’rays will come sniffing around at trade time. They’re going to want something back for Dustan Mohr.
We can get a “Move the Runner” chant everytime Pierre is up!
“Remember, speed is not quantifiable…there is no stat that says how many times a player beats a throw to first, makes it from first to third or first to home, etc.”
There are stats that measure every one of those things you mentioned, actually. When a player beats a throw to first it’s called a “single.” Or in some cases, “reached on error.”
There are stat companies that measure things like how often each runner goes from first to third, how often each outfielder prevents a runner from going first to third, etc. The companies that keep these stats sell them to major league teams.
Because, you know, smart teams care about quantifiable value, not the fact that widdle Juan Pierre looks so cuuuute wearing his sideways cap.
Incidentally, you should know that Pierre’s baserunning actually costs his teams runs, rather than helping his teams score runs. He gets caught stealing so often that his teams would benefit more if he just stood still on first base. This is not opinion, but mathematically proven fact.
Juan Pierre has three syllables.
Juan Pierre!
Juan Pierre!
Juan Pierre!
Still, not as good as Hee Seop Choi. That was a magical chant. Way better than chanting for Mark Grudzielanek, though.
the only upside i can see with Pierre is that he’ll be working with Maury Wills.
Could you imagine trying to chant for William Van Landingham? Wow, that would be really tough.
Todd Hollandsworth, too.
Dave Roberts was better after he stopped working with Maury Wills. Not that that proves anything.
Shouting Juan Pierre meets the SCOTUS “fighting words” exception to the first amendment. Just so you know, sad-panda.
Fortunately, “Juan Pierre” has three syllables. Unfortunately, one of them is “pee.”
Which is where everyone should go when he bats, ’cause ain’t nothing gonna happen.
Bokonon, Panda, if I have to stop this car…
wow, we haven’t even played our first spring game and 100
blogs!, This is what makes this all so great, can’t wait for all of us to start telling the Dodgers what we think once the season gets here.
My thoughts are this, forget the past, dream of what can be. I see a great year with furcal, and Pierre at one and two. they can really be great, drive pitchers wild, base hits, stolen bases, runs and setting things up for our 3, 4,and 5 hitters.
dream of winning, go for the glory. go Dodgers
Juan Pierre should only bat 9th for an otherwise loaded AL lineup – that puts him back-to-back with the true leadoff man, in the right order, i.e. minimizing Pierre’s plate appearances.
He started it! Oh. Wait. I started it. I forgot. My bad.
I’d rather see Juan Pierre working with someone like Brett Butler to teach him how to punch the ball harder to the left side and stop hitting so many darn weak grounders to second.
Did you know that Willie Wilson is a lot like Pierre (except Wilson was a very good base stealer) ? Did you know that Willie only had one above-average year at or older than Juan Pierre’s current age? We not only have Pierre for five years, he’s probably on permanent decline.
martin.leadman, please make bokonon stop. He keeps putting his hand on my side of the car…ON PURPOSE!
Also, when it comes to Juan Pierre, I’ve seen better arms on snakes. My grandfather has a better arm, and he died like twelve years ago.
I’m starting to question Old Fogey’s devotion to this team. Charris, what’s the loyalty test, again?
Old Fogey is my favorite poster. He uses logic and reason, and isn’t a total egomaniac like this bokonon fellow (if that is his real name).
Panda: I don’t shut up, I grow up. And when I think of you? I throw up.
This little-ball nonsense made some sense back in the 60s when the giants of the 15-inch high pitching mound strode the baseball earth and threw and batter’s heads with near impunity, but baseball is no longer chock-full of Koufaxes, Drysdales, Gibsons, Marichals, Jenkinses, Palmers, McLains, et al. The mound is lower, there are far more mediocre pitchers and the ballparks (except Petco) are smaller. Juan Pierre is an anachronism, a throwback to the deadball-era days.
(I hope rebounds with a .375 OBP, at 85% steal success rate, but I’m not holding my breath.)
“I hope *Juan Pierre* rebounds…”
sad-panda – and I use Latin abbreviations.
Old Fogey, did you know that if you go to websites like baseball-reference.com, and look at the comparable players to Juan Pierre, they’re all players from the Deadball era?
That’s right, Juan Pierre is like players that played when the ball was moosh and 11 home runs per year was king. That’s how bad he is. Great point.
So really it is everyone else’s fault for getting better. Can’t blame Juan for that.
I see where you’re going, Fogey, but if Hendrickson isn’t on the team specifically to cover any necessary rebounding, what’s the point of him?
bokonon – doesn’t everyone need an overpaid LOOGY who only wants to start?
We can’t let Tomko be lonely.
But Hendrickson and Tomko are proven veterans.
Good? No. Proven? You bet!
We are lacking on facial hair without Hendrickson. There are no stats to measure beard effectiveness.
Don’t let Tomko be lonely tonight?
I can see a place for one hopelessly hanging on veteran to mop up in middle relief after starters get completely hosed, but we already have Elmer Dessens and SOMEONE ELSE PAYS HIS SALARY!! Keeping three guys like this must mean that Ned Colletti expect we’ll be on the wrong side of a lot of blowouts, which could happen if Pierre makes 800 or so outs batting leadoff or second.
Maybe, Ned just hates sad-panda. I know most people do.
A few things
1) I have never supported the Juan Pierre signing, and my initial reaction when hearing we signed him was fury that he didn’t go to the Giants. By traditional measures, Pierre is the guy – AVG, SB, hits. He gets bunt hits, etc. But the fact is these traditional metrics miss a lot of the game. The ability to get on base, the probability of getting caught stealing, etc, really make a difference.
2) That said I’m frankly sick of everyone complaining about Juan Pierre, particularly the DT chat postings. There is nothing new to add, only more ranting on the same point. His walking ability isn’t great, but his career OBP (admittedly helped a lot by a .300 batting average) is still .350; compare that to .351 with a .286 career BA for Furcal.
3) Defensively, Pierre is actually quite good, despite the fact that his arm isn’t real good. If you don’t believe me, Baseball Think Factory has something to say about it here (scroll down toward the bottom to see the 8s).
http://tinyurl.com/yz2ndn
Personally, I see it as a vindication of Brad Penny, who called out Kenny Lofton’s nightmarish defense. While Penny shouldn’t have screamed, he was right, and so Colletti got him someone that he could rely on.
4) Do sacrifice bunts create runs? If there is a runner on third and less than two outs, of course. But the question is whether or not this is a price worth paying. In decision making, you have to gauge relative rather than absolute quality; in other words, is bunting the best you can do? For a pitcher, the answer is often yes, but for a position player, there is also a chance of hitting it into or even beyond the outfield. It should be considered, though, that if the pitcher on the mound either has the mental toughness of Jeff Weaver or is completely incapable of fielding his position, bunting may not be as bad of an idea.
5) To put a happy note in here, I’d like to say that Jon SooHoo does an excellent job, and as a result Dodgers.com has more pictures of its players than any other official site. Josh, that picture of you driving the cart with the starting infield needs to be a profile picture or something on the blog.
Couldn’t we bundle Tomko, Hendrickson and Gonzales to some dumb team for a guy with a peg leg? Or are we the dumb team?
I have it on good authority that trainwreck likes stats. And we all know that “Statheads” and “Moneyball worshippers” eat puppies and steal sunshine.
I hope you’re proud of yourself. Me, I’ll take heart and soul and grit and not being very good and loving Christmas and rainbows. Jerk.
Ender, of COURSE there are stats covering all of the things I mentioned. However, the number of times a player goes first to third has just as much to do with the players batting behind him – specifically, where they tend to hit the ball. The aspect affected by the players’ speed is not quantifiable, at least not by stats that I am aware of…for instance, when a player makes it from 1b to 3b when 95% of players would stop at 2nd. (This, of course, has everything to do with where the ball ended up on the field, which is not taken into account by a stat which states only how many times a runner advanced from 1st to 3rd.) Or the bunt hit that would have been a sac bunt by 95% of players. That’s my point. There are numbers that say how many times these events happen, but they do not paint the WHOLE PICTURE. Like I said in my last post.
Not that I don’t enjoy debate, but I’m reading a lot of people slamming Coletti and Pierre a lot. That in and of itself is not a problem, but the tone of this blog is much more negative than the average. Criticize the signing you don’t like, criticize the player, that’s fine. But at least post something alongside it that makes the casual reader think that you’re actually a fan of the team. Otherwise we could all just go post on the Giants’ website. If you’re rooting for the Dodgers to lose because you’re mad about a signing or two, go away.
I’m done here. Go Dodgers!
Someone give Ned, Bill Bavasi’s phone number.
The sunshine left on its own. And those puppies wanted to be eaten, they told me with their eyes.
Pointing out how atrocious the Pierre signing is and rooting for the Dodgers to lose are not the same thing. And I have a feeling that Josh, who runs a great blog, is very happy with a free and open exchange of ideas…Especially one that attempts to point out the advances in baseball analysis and works to crush some of the silly myths that have riddled baseball for decades. So, in short, ordering people to go away is neither your job nor indicative of an honest intellectual debate.
Warning – salty language used on patriotacts425 link.
Salty? Are you saying it’s bad for people with high blood pressure?
Sometimes Colletti makes me think he was born with a tail.
Go Dodgers!
It’s bad for people with the common decency to behave civically in public; and, yes, the internet is “in public”.
Maybe he cut off the tail and glued it to his upper lip.
How about we debate whether Andy LaRoche should start at third. I vote yes.
Then we can debate the merits of choosing to call yourself Andy over Andrew.
Okay, puppyhead was right about one thing. bokonon42 should go away.
LaRoche should start at 3B. Andy and Andrew are better than “Andruw”.
Fogey, would you have re-signed Nomar? If no, would you have gone with Loney or try to get someone else?
ok, yeah, the comments section a bit. I didn’t read that; all I did was google “Juan Pierre Zone Rating.”
My apologies to anyone whose children learned new words from the comments.
How about signing Nomar to play OF (preferably CF, but I’d settle for LF) for a year and starting Loney at 1B?
what a joke. are you guys from san francisco?? sounds like some midget fans if you ask me.
You’re right. We should all completely ignore mistakes and pretend that everything is perfect and never analyze the team objectively.
Because being a fan is all about blind loyalty.
Since we haven’t even played one game, why don’t we reserve judgement until we see how these guys play together? Personally, I’m excited about the prospects, and won’t start complaining until I see it’s not working.
I also think some of you folks need to give it a rest, constant repitition doesn’t prove a point, it just bores the rest of us to tears.
Whoa… the regulars go away for a few hours and look what happens. Where was this passion when Pierre signed his deal? I do not like the Pierre signing, not then and not now. But he’s a Dodger and we’re stuck with him for a while, barring injury or whatever, so we might do best to get behind him and hope for the best. I do like the concept of him performing better with high-calibur talent around him… so let’s see what the season brings. If Kemp starts tearing the cover off of the ball again, then he’ll find his way into the lineup… it’s that simple.
As for Sammy’s Song, I have a few suggestions:
Thunderstruck – ACDC
Dr. Feelgood – Motley Crue
Unchained – Van Halen
Bodies – Drowning Pool
“And if you’ve read Moneyball, ….” – Sad Panda
Sad Panda, If you’ve read Moneyball, you’re wrong. Moneyball will win you an AL West Division title (some years). But it won’t win a Championship. You can quote me on that. “Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost, for support, not illumination.” – Vin Scully
Pierre is so-so. Gonzo’s the problem. We need a power hitter that can hit at least 30 HRs a year, which Luis cannot do. We don’t have a real power hitter, just like last year. I’m real happy we beefed up the starting rotation, but we should have traded for Andruw Jones. And if we had him instead of Pierre at CF, we would not be having this argument.
Ohh and I also guarantee that a non moneyball team will win the WS before a Moneyball team does.
“Moneyball” won the Red Sox a title. Yup, Theo Epstein is a Bill James stathead too. In fact, Bill James works for the Red Sox. So your guarantee is already wrong, two seasons before you wrote it.
Also, if you don’t like statistics, what evidence do you use that Andruw Jones is better than Juan Pierre? Hat size? Favorite movie? No, you use numbers to judge performance. You like Andrew Jones because empirical statistical data proves him to be a better player than Juan Pierre.
Theo was in his 1st year, and the team was not completely moneyball. in fact, his moneyball tactics were reflected in his damon trade and his aquisition of wily mo pena. the team in 04 was NOT moneyball. Damon and Manny are not moneyball players, which is why they are looking to get rid of manny. varitek is not a moneyball player, but they know they can’t trade him because the management would lose a lot of support. again the 04 BoSox were not Moneyball
What is Moneyball to you? Please explain to me what you think Moneyball is. I get the idea that you think “Moneyball” is about On Base Percentage, which it’s not. So until we reach common ground on what “Moneyball” is, it’s going to be tough to reach a basis for conversation. Please, explain to me what you think Moneyball is.
he’s a better than average fielder and a much better hitter than pierre. and since he doesn’t pitch, i’d say those are pretty good statistics. I’m not against statistics. If you nplay Fantasy Baseball you can’t be against stats. But I think statistics are not the heart and soul of baseball. So what is the heart and soul of Baseball? –
Babe Ruth’s called shot
Lou Gehrig’s speech at Yankee Stadium
Jackie Robinson
Anibel Sanchez, a rookie who pitched a no hitter
Jim Edmond’s catch behind the back
etc. (i hope you see where I’m going with this)
I don’t think people (and I don’t speak for “people” which is why I use a qualifier) watch baseball to see Nomar bat 300 with 20 HR. I think they watch to see a homerun win a game in dramatic fashion in the Bottom of the 10th.
And actually, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon are the very definition of Jamesian players. Especially Manny, who gets on base a ton and slugs a ton.
Those are all wonderful things that you mentioned. They’re part of the glorious past that makes baseball special. It’s a big part of why I’m a fan. But they have nothing to do with evaluating a player’s performance. Every player you named was, or is, a great baseball player. We know this because data tells us so.
Theo was not in his first year when they won the World Series and he never traded for Damon or traded Damon.
They can’t trade Ramirez, because no one will give them anything good for a player making so much money.
Moneyball is about a business approach that is all. The A’s cannot get the type of players they want, because they cost too much. This is why the A’s are now a completely different structured team than they were when the book came out.
I’m gonna head out now. It’s been a real blast chatting with you guys, and I look forward to doing it again. Hopefully, some of this will make you curious about the new and exciting ways in which baseball is analyzed. It’s really an exciting time for people who want to learn as much of the game as possible.
moneyball (as I understand it) is the idea that paying less for players because you can is the way to win. The reason you can is because these players have ceratin statistics that are not thought of as extremely important in the market, and “Moneyballists” (if I may be so bold) value these players differently. No OBP is not Moneyball. OPS is used much more frequently, but many, many other stats are used.
Examples:
RC27
Secondary average
Win shares
just to name a few.
If I’m wrong, or misguided I would love to know.
And yes, Moneyball is about business. But you didn’t explain exactly how, nor did you touch on the importance of certain data mining and research. But I’m sure we can do that another time. Take care, and Go Dodgers.
Moneyball is just about taking advantage of undervalued assets in a market. At the time the book was written, on-base percentage and slugging were not stats that were widely used. Now they are, which is why the A’s can’t afford any of those players. The only way for them to get players like that is through the draft and taking risks on free agents (like Big Hurt, Bradley, and Piazza).
Now the A’s concentrate on getting players that play good defense and they are built like the old Dodgers. Pitching depth combined with excellent defense.
Theo was not in his first year when they won the World Series
(your right, i’m wrong)
and he never traded for Damon or traded Damon.
(your right. Damon entered Free agency. Boston has any amount of money it wants, and they easily could have offered Damon a better contract.)
Thanks very much for the insight
As to sad-panda, I’m going to finish by saying that I think Moneyball is a very interesting concept. I guess my real problem with it is not the creation of new stats, it is the complete disregard of the old ‘tried and true” stats.
P.S. Anibel Sanchez is not great. Heck he could turn out to be a complete dud. Or he could turn out to be great. Who knows? But as of right now, he had one great game, but he is not great yet.
*Bradley they got in a trade not free agency.
Trainwreck understands. But he still eats puppies.
Actually, Annibal Sanchez is one of the brightest pitching prospects in baseball. He’s very, very good. But you’re just nit-picking now, and I respect that. That was like the eleventeenth most important thing in that paragraph.
OK, I really gotta head out. Take care.
That was like the eleventeenth most important thing in that paragraph.
Yup.
I do however think stats are not the be all and end all when it comes to prospects. Young players are going to go through all kinds of changes, established players are not. When it comes to prospects, I like to blend scouting with production.
Wow who left the lock off the nutcage?
I for one Still feel that Furcal should bat #2. He has power and will see far more fastballs if JP gets on base which is better then a third of the time. I think furcal will see junk thrown and make an out then JP will see junk then Nomar gets more junk.JP is a huge defencive upgrade to Lofton who just can’t field anymore and cost alot of runs in plays that were not made but not called errors.Penny was right to Rip him.Loney is a definate X factor this year and La Roche a possible with betemit being the trade bait with anyone of 5 or so pitchers to be named.Or Betemit breaking thru and giving us that 30+ HR player we are looking for beltre had years of up side and when he broke thru he failed again for his new high paying team. Kent wants it and has prepared for it this year Barring fluke injury and playing him no more then 130 games this season with Martinez backing him same with Nomar backed with Loney and La Roche and or Saenz at third for betemit and Loney/ Repko Backing the outfield we have One Very Deep Club.JP is the only player we have as a regular starter that I don’t see capible of hitting 20 HR.Kent if he stays healthy will hit 20 easy Nomar the same Gonzo still could but 15 is more realisticFurcal could @ #2 but 10-15 in leadoff Betemit will hit 20 or so if he is FT Then the fact that we have a catcher that can hit and can run and is also able to steal bases???hmmm is that a stat that anyone looks at?A Real Team Player in Martin and the fact that he is backed by another Catcher who can hit as well as catch a great game factored into the WHOLE picture?Martin will get his Knocks as well.1-8 I see a team that will score 5-6 runs a game and a starting rotation with an era under 4 and a bullpen under 3.5.If we win under 92 games this year barring many injuries I’ll be shocked.If we win less then 86 games this year its all grady and the 3rd base coach fault.And if all the players quit because this Blog is negative then its all the JP Haters/Giants fans talking smack fault.
BTW HEE ***** CHOI was the chant and SF chant is not beat LA its ‘We are ***!’
Go Big Blue Wrecking Crew 2007!!!!
Choi was a Dodger, well and true. Slagging him proves you’re no fan, fisher. Get thee back to McCovey Cove!
Go Dodgers!
(I like exclamation points!)
(And Jell-o!)
Saito’s song should be ENTER SANDMAN by Metallica!!!!!! It fits perfect!
Enter Sandman is very cool, and a very good song, but Rivera already uses it. It would make Saito look like a wannabe Rivera.
Okay, since no one’s loving my suggestion of Sade’s “Smooth Operator”, what about “Song 2” by Blur? If no other pitcher uses it, I can see Saito jogging to the mound from the bullpen and Dodger stadium rocking to it.
“Whoo-hoo!!!”
Then again, there’s always Haddaway’s “What is Love?” (Baby don’t hurt me, don’t hurt me… no more… what is love?!)
OK. Maybe not. But I’ve seen Will Ferrell at a couple of Dodger games and I’m sure he’d get a kick out of it.
Blur – “Song 2”
171 COMMENTS. I LOVE IT!!! WHEN THERE ARE 171 COMMENTS ON THIS BLOG THAT CAN ONLY MEAN ONE THING….DODGER BASEBALL IS BACK! GOOOO BLUE!!!!
i have never read such a macho blogger who seems to have all the answers and knows so much. sad panda let me ask you one question since you wanna play keyboard gm, what should ned have done with whats available? you would be the type of dodger fan that would have whined had we not made any moves right. im sorry if you think rooting for the dodgers entails ripping guys who havent played a game yet at 11 45 at night. no one blogs at that hour you clown. did you expect someone to come on here and argue with some bitter drunk from san francisco at that hour? get real pal you guys got zito stop whining? true schmidt is with us and its gonna be hard for you guys but go start a giants blog or something. its not about being a blind fan, its called rooting for your squad no matter what. if you wanna cry and complain that ned didnt use his resources to get players then thats one thing, but we got better as a club and we have plenty of time and resources to make a trade if ones available. next time go take your xanax, and then come rant and rave on how Lofton is SOOOO MUCH BETTER THAN pierre. one thing is for certain you sure soaked up that knowledge from all those years of debate class.
LETS TALK BASEBALL AT A DECENT HOUR!!!!!! Who wants to argue if wilton guerrero was a better player than joe thurston????? get at me sad panda anytime you wanna talk some serious baseball with your new groundbreaking ways of being the ultimate fan and student of the game.
171 Blog entries is a mess when 141 of them are two or three guys bickering back and forth… I suggest this type of thing get settles between the guys involved over email offline- It’s no fun scrolling through page after page of two guys duking it out…. making points and baseball debate is awesome, but lets try to keep it to less than 10 posts per person….. all in favor?
Wow, I am amazed at the animosity towards a guy who hasn’t even had a chance to play a game yet. This must be where all the annoying and obnoxious “dodgers” fans come from when I am at a game. Probably the type to boo a pitcher when he is having a bad night rather then supporting him as a fan should. It is also the type to chant “Barry *****” over and over, when we know he feeds off that noise. Why not give him complete silence and see how he handles that or try cheering our team on instead of cussing and jeering the other team. I am convinced that 20% of the people at a Dodger game are there for the love of the game and the team, and the other 80% came to **** and moan, drink beer, or got dragged along by some office party.
By the way, none of those were obscene words but they were filtered anyway.
I’m with you Graffiti, They are midgets, Mental Midgets.
Go Dodgers
“We are lacking on facial hair without Hendrickson. There are no stats to measure beard effectiveness.”
Exactly, & he provided a memorable blooper for us last year as well.
“Not that I don’t enjoy debate, but I’m reading a lot of people slamming Coletti and Pierre a lot.”
I think Pierre is gonna be our NEW J.D. Drew, In terms of who we let out our frustrations towards.
I agree completely with the last 7 posts. Whether or not Pierre was a good signing is simply a matter of opinion. As with most players there a slew of stats that speak well of him, and a slew of stats that arent the best. I just want to reflect on my absolute favorite line of this mess, and it comes courtesy of sad-panda: “If you get 200 hits and 3 walks, and i get 150 hits nad 60 walks, I am a better hitter.” I know you only say this bc of OBP, which is probably like .04 % higher in the latter case. But OBP really is a questionable stat, bc when you ROE and Fielder’s CHoice, that counts towards OBP, but has nothing to do with the quality of hitter. Personally, i’d take the 200 hit guy 10 out of 10 times; if only bc you came up with a stupid example; no one who has 200 hits will ever have walks.
Pierre is a great, all-around baseball player, that is going to help this team in many more ways than one. When you look at the market, Pierre was the best possible signing to make, and we did, and that makes me happy. GO NED! We can always trade him, and its not like we are paying him a ton of money, as in i dont think any team would be scared off by the prospect of picking up his contract– Anyone who think Matt Kemp should start the season starting is stupid, and im very glad Colletti is out GM..
i trust ned made the right moves and tried, but i want to know where this 96 million offer to soriano came from. i didnt hear anything about the dodgers being contenders for any big power hitter.
Pierre or not to Pierre, that is the question. I was not a big fan of the signing of JP or Gonzo, but I’ll wait and see how it plays out. I’m sure if it does not work Ned will fix it. PS. What’s wrong with being born with a tail?
Boardr – OBP doesn’t count if you get on during a fielder’s choice, error, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_base_percentage
As for what Colletti could have done instead, I would have gone with Repko for a year, when Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Ichiro will be on the market.
I’ve made my peace with the deal, but I’m just saying what I thought was the case here.
So you guys don’t like the fact that Juan Pierre is a bad player, you don’t like statheads, you don’t like statistical analysis, and whoever doesn’t like the signing is stupid or a traitor or a Giants fan. Nice to see the maturity coming from you guys. I may not agree with you, but nobody on this side is getting into petty name calling.
sad-panda77, the only thing I can agree with you on is the petty name calling !! Although I can see some of your reasoning I think your way to hung up on whose numbers mean more. Fact is no two games are alike and numbers are results not potential. A player does things differently when playing for a contender vs a last place team. And hits a lot different playing 80+ home games in a hitters ball park vs a pitchers ball park. I think this guy is a good ball player and in todays market $44 million looks a lot cheaper then $126 million, which is what Ned had to deal with this off season. We all hope Kemp will make the adjustments and prevail but that has yet to be proven and it needs to be proven in Las Vegas, not LA. I can’t remember who it was that suggested we should bit the bullet and get rid of the veterens and move up all the kids this year, but that’s just dumb baseball. This team is positioned to win the Division as best as the market will allow. Our hopes are for the kids to prevail but not all at once and thus we pick our spots carefully. I think if you check out the minors carefully we don’t have any jack rabbitts in the system that look to be coming up so a solid lead off hitter is a good investment long term. JP makes solid business and baseball sense, even though some of you have a burr in your saddle against him.
Now with that said “Can’t we all just get along”
Support the team, the whole team !!
Go Dodgers !!!
Well said. the bottom line is that we all love the team and root like the Dickens for the Dodgers. We may not agree on how to maximize the talent, but we’re all Dodger fans. I don’t think calling people “traitors” or “Giants fans” is very productive. It wouldn’t be very fun if we all thought the exact same way.
Equally well said, so with that in mind is it possible that we can lose the “Eats Puppies” stuff, my 12 year old daughter is asking me all kinds of questions about that one !! Yes she reads this blog religously !!
Go Dodgers !!
Sure. The “eat puppies” thing was directed at the poster named Trainwreck, who is a very good friend of mine. We decided to post on this site on the same day, and it was kind of an inside joke. I would be happy to do away with the “eats puppies” thing. It was an inside joke between two friends. Tell your wonderful daughter that no puppies were harmed in the making of these posts!
didnt seem like an inside joke the other night. it was obvious you three guys were buddies just trying to stir up a relatively calm and civilized blog. now you come here and whine that your feelings got hurt because i called you a midget fan. come on man, your good at arguing that lofton is better than pierre ut dont act like those statements were anyway supportive of the dodgers. i was one of the first on here to say that was dumb move especially the way anderson played down the stretch and weve seen a little of what repko can do. then i grew up and realized gary matthews got too much money gil meche got too much money. it wasnt that bad of a deal considering. he can fill in where lofton left off just save your rants until after weve seen a pitch .
Good call with Furcal batting first. Pierre will do fine batting second.
I think Saito’s song should be CLICK CLICK BOOM by SALIVA.
Click – STRIKE 1
Click – STRIKE 2
BOOM! – STRIKE 3 – YER OUT